Tote placepot tips: Dan Overall's Cheltenham picks for Saturday
Last year's Tipstar winner and Jump racing expert Dan Overall shares his picks for Saturday's Tote placepot at Cheltenham!
Race 1
Burdett Road has been well-touted since his impressive hurdling debut at Huntingdon. The Royal Ascot winner travelled keenly, leaving Harry Cobden little choice but to let him stride on having failed to settle in behind. What he actually achieved thirteen-days ago is questionable, but the same can be said for many of the once-raced winners that line up here and the style of his success was visually impressive. His upwardly-mobile trainer has a smart horse who is likely to take high rank amongst the British juveniles this season for owners who are no strangers to success in this division.
However, the standout form claims don’t hail from these shores; the French raider, Milan Tino, has achieved the most of these over hurdles and the fact that they’re running here suggests that connections believe he is a genuine Triumph contender. Second in a listed newcomers’ race on debut, he reversed the form with the winner next time out in Grade 2 company when finishing third to the outstanding French juvenile, Jigme. That form was franked by the 1-2 filling the same positions in a Grade 1 next time out. Of course, there are questions when a French horse has their first start in Britain, but Apple’s Shakira won this on her first start in Britain and I am willing to take the chance on his adaptability given his form credentials.
Selection: Milan Tino.
Race 2
To call this tricky would be an understatement. My main fancy ante-post (First Lord De Cuet) wasn’t declared which put me back to square one, and the current betting of 7/1 the field tells the story.
Quite a few of these will be hoping for as little rain as possible, but even in the event of no rain, good to soft may be slow enough for some.
The ground won’t be a problem for Read To Return, who won with any amount in hand last time out. That was his first run in a handicap chase, finally delivering on the promise he’d shown earlier having been beaten at short prices on his previous two starts. This point-to-point winner is still completely unexposed as a staying chaser, and Tony Martin‘s runners here always warrant respect, especially if strong in the betting.
Mel Rowley was dreaming of the Coral Gold Cup after Latitude’s win at Kempton, which shows the regard in which they hold him. He’d always shown promise, but he really started to put it all together towards the back end of last season and while he carries top-weight here, he still has untapped potential. He also jumps out slightly to his left, making his
victories at Ludlow and Kempton (sharp, right-handed tracks) even more impressive. Currently number 36 on the list of entries for the big race at Newbury, connections may well need to win here and accrue a five-pound penalty if they are to get a run, so there’s every incentive for them to have him ready for this.
Selections: Read To Return and Latitude.
Race 3
A six-runner listed race in which you can make genuine form claims for five. While there are many interesting races across the three-day meeting, this one is right up there for me in terms of intrigue, and I’ll be keeping a close eye on this contest with a view to the future, with one eye firmly on the Ultima (Cheltenham Festival handicap scouting in November – yes, I do have a slight obsession!)
Sam Twiston-Davies riding Good Risk At All is interesting given his father runs two and his long-held belief in Weveallbeencaught. Whether Good Risk At All would’ve beaten Giovinco had the latter not departed three-out is subject to debate; personally, I thought Giovinco was going slightly better but the former jumped well and looks an exciting chaser in his own right. It wouldn’t surprise me if he was to usurp Mister Coffey as favourite, although I’d be slightly concerned that he has disappointed at three-miles previously and hasn’t always built on promising runs in the past.
With that in mind, the solid option looks to be Broadway Boy. I think his progress has slightly surprised connections, who appeared to favour Weveallbeencaught when they ran here in October, despite Broadway Boy already impressing on his chase debut ahead of a subsequent winner. Quite what he achieved when finishing second to Flooring Porter (conceding 5lb to him) is subjective, but what impresses me most is his attitude. He slightly lost his position, but rallied well and made the dual Stayers’ Hurdle winner find extra after the last. I expect him to be ridden prominently again, and I’m slightly surprised the market continues to favour his stablemate.
Selection: Broadway Boy.
Race 4
An intriguing, if puzzling renewal of the Paddy Power Gold Cup.
Two festival winners in the form of Stage Star (Turners) and The Real Whacker (Brown Advisory) add a touch of class, as does Turners runner-up, Notlongtillmay. As well as class, they also add pace as all three tend to go forward in their races, as do Il Ridoto & Torn And Frayed. These races are often won by those ridden handily, but with so many potential pace angles, this could be a real test of stamina at the trip and getting into a rhythm will be key.
Of those mentioned, The Real Whacker would be the one with assured stamina and his admirable attitude will be a big asset. His defeat of Gerri Colombe (sorry for the reminder, Gerry fans…) is top-level form, and while running off 162 will require a monumental effort to win, he seems pretty sure to be in and around the action as they turn for home. Long Run placed in this off 158 before winning the King George and Gold Cup in the same season – The Real Whacker will likely be campaigned in a similar way and so a place effort would be more than satisfactory for his seasonal reappearance.
Sam Thomas has proven himself to be a superb target trainer, and if can get Angels Breath to win this, it may be his biggest training accomplishment to date. Incredibly talented in his prime, he’s undeniably well-handicapped based on his best form which saw him saunter clear of future Grade 1 winner, First Flow. That was a long time ago and the nine-year-old has had his fair share of issues, but his reappearance over hurdles last month was encouraging (very weak on the exchanges before the off) and this could well have been the plan for a while. Any rain will help and he’ll benefit from having a strong pace to aim at.
Selections: The Real Whacker and Angels Breath.
Race 5
If we’re still in there with a chance after the Paddy Power Gold Cup, things don’t get any easier for Placepot purposes in the following race!
A fifteen-runner handicap hurdle where many have something to prove will help provide a healthy dividend if we can solve this tricky puzzle.
Chantry House is unquestionably the class-act of this field, and from a mark of 147, he is more than capable of winning this cosily if at the top of his game. A dual Grade 1 winner as a novice chaser (if fortuitous on both occasions), his career over fences tailed-off following victory in the 2022 Cotswold Chase. His fall in the Rowland Meyrick caused an injury to his neck, which was easily fixed but ended his season. In stable tours, Nicky Henderson has mentioned that going back hurdling is and has been the plan for some time, so I don’t think this is a prep run for anything else – rather, a confidence booster to get this talented horse back on track. He’s won every completed start when fresh and the former Supreme third should be going close here if all is well.
Moka De Vassy is yet to win over hurdles but has pieces of form to suggest he’s capable off this mark. He was just 16/1 for last season’s Pertemps Final (fell at the 2nd) and Jane Williams horses are slowly running into form. He took a massive step back in the right direction last time out when third at Exeter (where three consecutive jumping blemishes at the final three flights cost him his chance of winning) and arguably his best performances in the past two seasons came on his third run. He’s gone well at Cheltenham previously and while I’d be sceptical of his winning chance, a place is more than viable.
Selections: Chantry House and Moka De Vassy.
Race 6
If we’ve made it this far, we’re probably looking at a very healthy dividend, so I intend to keep it simple for the final race.
Springwell Bay, in my view, has the most upside for all that he has to carry topweight here. Long been held in high regard by the stable, his victory over Persian Time at Ascot reads well and he ran with credit in the Mersey having been hampered. He shaped well enough at this meeting last year over two-miles, goes well fresh and it would be disappointing if he isn’t going close in a race like this.
What Resplendent Grey achieved in chasing home Captain Teague in the Persian War is subject to debate. It was bold of Olly Murphy to run his 120-rated novice in the Grade 2, but he was bullish about his chances and was subsequently well-backed at each-way prices. Raised seven-pounds for that effort, he’s lightly raced enough to suggest we haven’t seen the best of him and he looks the main danger to Springwell Bay.
Selections: Springwell Bay and Resplendent Grey.
