Tournament Betting Tips and Predictions

Pundit Feed

18 May 2023

All eyes of the golf world will be on the PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club this week for the season’s second major. Nearly all of the top talents, 99 players in the top 100 Official World Golf Rankings, will tee it up Thursday in the 156-player field in hopes of securing the Wanamaker Trophy come Sunday evening.

In this article, we’ll provide three PGA Championship tips including a top 20, top 40 and head-to-head prediction.

PGA Championship tournament finish predictions (72-holes)

The following top 20 pick is for the finishing position of the full event.

Xander Schauffele to finish Top 20 @ 20/23 (-115)

The “X-Man” enters the PGA Championship in spectacular form. In 12 full tournaments played this season, Schauffele has recorded 10 top 20 finishes which means he’s finished in the top 20 83.3% of the time. This is excluding his one withdrawal at the Sentry Tournament of Champions when he was forced to call it quits after 26 holes due to injury.

The 29-year-old finished in solo second during his last start at the Wells Fargo Championship (elevated event) and has made five top 20s in a row. Consistency is Schauffele’s specialty. He’s currently the leader in consecutive cuts on the PGA Tour with 24.

Schauffele is known for his excellent play in majors although he hasn’t won one yet.

Majors played: 23
Top 20s: 16
Top 20 percentage: 69.6%

In three of his past four PGA Championship appearances, the La Jolla, California native has finished T16 or higher. Last year at Southern Hills he finished T13.

Schauffele Notable Stats

Approaches (150-175 yds): 1st
Eagles (Holes per): 2nd
Strokes Gained Total: 4th
SG (Approach to green): 5th
SG (Tee-to-green): 7th
SG (Putting): 19th
Scoring average: 6th
Greens in regulation: 19th
Putting average: 19th
Par 4 scoring: 13th
Birdie average: 21st
Scrambling: 27th

Oak Hill is a great course fit for Schauffele, and if you’re high on him to win, he’s available between 12-1 to 16-1 as the fourth favorite to win the event.

Talor Gooch to finish Top 40 (1/1, +100)

The LIV Golf Tour has drawn a plethora of critics for many reasons including the strength of its fields. The tournaments aren’t filled with as many stars as the PGA Tour’s elevated events but are much stronger than many regular events.

Talor Gooch comes into the week as one of the hottest golfers on the planet after winning back-to-back LIV events (LIV Adelaide and LIV Singapore) during the last two weeks of April.

Gooch LIV Stats (2022 and 2023 seasons)

Starts: 14
Top 10s: 7
Wins: 2

Before he switched over to LIV, Gooch was playing well on the PGA Tour. During 2021-2022, the University of Oklahoma product recorded 10 Top 20s and 13 Top 40s in 20 PGA Tour events (including majors).

Gooch even won the 2021 RSM Classic (PGA Tour) which gives him three wins in about 2.5 years and finished in a T5 in the strongest of fields, The 2021 Players.

At last year’s PGA Championship, the 31-year-old finished T20 at 1-over par, six strokes behind winner Justin Thomas. At the 2023 Masters, he finished in a T34.

In his previous six majors, Gooch has finished inside the top 40 five times (83.3%).

Gooch last six majors

2021 Open Championship: T33
2022 Masters: T14
2022 PGA Championship: T20
2022 U.S. Open: Cut
2022 Open Championship: T34
2023 Masters: T34

The odds for Gooch to win outright at the PGA Championship are between 60 to 80-1 depending on the book. He currently ranks 26th-29th in terms of being favored to win.

A top 40 at even money on Ladbrokes offers value. He’s being offered at -125 on other websites.

Head-to-head matchup tip

The following matchup is for which golfer finishes with the lower score over the span of the entire tournament.

Rickie Fowler over Si Woo Kim @ 2/3 (-150)

Rickie Fowler is enjoying a resurgence this season after struggling the last few years and falling down the Official Golf World Rankings. After playing well, he’s moved back into the top 50 at No. 49.

Despite missing some majors, including the 2023 Masters, the five-time PGA Tour winner hasn’t missed a PGA Championship since his debut in 2010 and is making his 14th appearance at the event.

Fowler PGA Championship results

The former Oklahoma State Cowboy has an impressive track record reaching the top 20 in four of his last five appearances.

Fowler has made 46 starts in major championships and has yet to win but has come extremely close finishing in the top five 11 times including three second-place finishes.

This year on the PGA Tour, the former Players champion has played in 13 events and has finished outside of the top 20 on just four occasions with only a single missed cut (he’s made 12 made cuts in a row) at the Shriners Children’s Open in October. Fowler has finished inside the top 15 in four consecutive starts.

Fowler Notable Stats

Strokes Gained Total: 11th
SG (Approach to green): 7th
SG (Tee-to-green): 16th
SG (Putting): 39th
Scoring average: 15th
Total Driving: 31st
Greens in regulation: 31st
Putting average: 13th
Par 3 scoring avg: 3rd
Par 4 scoring: 16th
Birdie average: 12th
Scrambling from rough: 8th

Fowler vs. Kim head-to-head this season

Fowler leads Kim in head-to-head matchups (10-2) and has earned a better result in eight straight starts.

The Murrieta, California native has also finished higher than Kim in six of the last seven PGA Championships (6-1 head-to-head).

Si Woo Kim PGA Championship Results compared to Fowler

2016: Cut (Worse)
2017: Withdraw (Worse)
2018: Cut (Worse)
2019: Cut (Worse)
2020: T13 (Better)
2021: Cut (Worse)
2022: T60 (Worse)

Based on the results of the two at the tournament and this season, the 2/3 (-150) line in favor of Fowler appears to be way too low and should likely be closer to 1/2 (-200).