Travis Kelce NFL Player Props, Odds MNF: Predictions for Eagles vs. Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs play host to the Philadelphia Eagles, as we make our best Travis Kelce NFL player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds.

Travis Kelce has recorded just two 100-yard games this season, despite leading the Kansas City Chiefs in receiving yards. In his last game, he caught just three passes for 14 yards, as he failed to score a touchdown for the second consecutive week.

Kelce, despite his consistent involvement in games with at least six catches in six outings, has encountered challenges in surpassing the 100-yard mark, falling short in six of his recent appearances. What's notable is that within those games, he hasn't managed to reach even 70 yards, highlighting a trend when he's struggled to achieve higher yardage totals despite maintaining a consistent reception rate in those matchups.

Here are our best Travis Kelce NFL player prop predictions for the Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs Week 11 matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Travis Kelce NFL player prop predictions for Week 11

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Travis Kelce player props

Travis Kelce Over 74.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

The Eagles are allowing nearly 49 yards per game to tight ends. While that may not seem like a lot, it’s the 13th-worst mark in the NFL. Kelce hasn’t had his best season, but he still leads the Chiefs in catches, receiving yards, and targets. In a game that should feature a lot of passing, Kelce is going to get opportunities to put up big numbers.

Kelce is averaging just 10.5 yards per completion, so he will likely need seven catches in this game to hit the Over. He’s hauled in that many balls in four of his eight games this year. The Eagles are allowing 257 passing yards per game this season. Without any receivers that can take over the game for the Chiefs, it will be Kelce exploiting the Eagles’ weakness tonight.

FanDuel has this prop listed at 76.5, while the rest of our best sports betting apps have it listed at 74.5. Therefore, it’s a no-brainer to place this bet at bet365 for the best price.

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Travis Kelce Over 7.5 receptions (+118 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

Oddsmakers aren’t making it easy on us with this prop. Kelce is averaging just over seven receptions per game, but he has failed to catch seven passes in back-to-back games. His recent performances haven’t prevented every major sportsbook from asking a lot for Over 6.5 receptions. 

Kelce has only caught more than seven passes in three games this season. Considering that’s fewer than half of his games, it may be a little worrying to take his Over. But his season-long performance is already being factored into the price. This is a game where Patrick Mahomes should throw the ball close to 40 times. Kelce has been targeted at least nine times in all but one of the games where Mahomes has thrown the ball at least 38 times.

Caesars is offering the best price for this prop but not by much. Every major sportsbook has the price listed at at least +112, so make sure to shop around before placing this wager, as the line could move just enough to make one sportsbook a better place to bet than another.

$1,000 First Bet on Caesars

Travis Kelce most receiving yards (+155 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

You could consider taking Kelce to score a touchdown, but for someone who has scored in only half of his games this season, a price of -120 or worse is not worth it. Instead of playing that prop, we recommend taking Kelce to have the most receiving yards in this game.

The Eagles have a great offense, but the Chiefs’ secondary has done a phenomenal job at shutting down opposing wide receivers. AJ Brown enters the game with six 100-yard games, but the Chiefs have only allowed two receivers to go over 100 yards this season. 

Kelce is the clear primary target for the Chiefs, and if he has the game that we’re expecting him to have tonight, then he should be able to outduel anyone on the Eagles thanks in large part to his defense. Right now, only DraftKings is offering this prop. While you could wait to see if anyone else offers it closer to kickoff, we think the price is good enough to get in now.

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Travis Kelce player prop picks made 11/20/2023 at 9:59 a.m. ET.

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