Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs Odds, Predictions and Picks for AFC Conference Championship Game
For the second year in a row, the Cincinnati Bengals and Chiefs meet in the AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City with this year’s game set for 6:30 p.m. ET Sunday.
The Bengals (14-4, 7-3 road) beat the Chiefs 27-24 in overtime last season and take a 10-game winning streak into the rematch. Cincinnati rolled past the Buffalo Bills 27-10 last week on the road in a divisional-round game.
The Chiefs (15-3, 8-1 home) have won six games in a row, including beating the visiting Jacksonville Jaguars 27-20 last week.
The game will be televised by CBS.
Bengals vs Chiefs Odds
Odds as of January 28th at Caesars Sportsbook.
The line has had major moves throughout the week. The Chiefs opened as 2.5-point favorites then the spread moved five points to the Bengals being favored by 2.5 points. Now, Kansas City is favored by 1.5 points.
The Chiefs are also -120 choices on the moneyline in the NFL odds, giving them a 54.55% implied win probability. In the Super Bowl championship odds, Cincinnati is listed at +270 and Kansas City at +275.
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It is expected to be a cold evening in Kansas City with a low of 12 degrees, northwest wind at 14 mph with gusts up to 22.
Bengals vs Chiefs Recent History
The Bengals have won the last three meetings with the Chiefs, all by three points, including 27-24 on Dec. 4 at Cincinnati. Joe Burrow threw for 286 yards and two touchdowns in the victory and Samaje Perine rushed for 106 yards.
The Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes was just 16-of-27 passing for 223 yards and one TD.
Bengals Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Burrow is 3-0 against Mahomes. That has led some Bengals to refer to Arrowhead Stadium as Burrowhead Stadium, much to the consternation – and amusement — of the Chiefs.
Burrow had an outstanding regular season in which he set franchise records with 414 completions, 606 attempts and 35 touchdown passes. In last year’s AFC Championship Game, he had 250 yards passing and two TDs with one interception.
The Bengals’ deep receiving corps could present a tough matchup for a Chiefs secondary that often plays three rookie cornerbacks and a rookie safety. Ja’Marr Chase had seven receptions for 97 yards in the regular season meeting while Tyler Boyd had four catches for 65 yards and Tee Higgins had three receptions for 35 yards.
Chase had a team-record 266 receiving yards against the Chiefs during the 2021 regular season.
Chiefs Offense vs Bengals Defense
Mahomes missed most of the second quarter of last week’s game with a high right ankle sprain. However, he returned at the start of the second half and will start Sunday.
He finished with a season-low 185 yards against the Jaguars.
Mahomes led the NFL with 5,250 passing yards and 41 touchdown passes in the regular season. The passing yards were the most in his career.
Tight end Travis Kelce had 14 catches against the Jaguars last week, one short of the NFL record for a playoff game. He also has 1,389 receiving yards in 16 career playoff games, third-most in league history.
Mahomes has a 9-3 record in the playoffs while throwing 29 TD passes.
Cincinnati vs Kansas City Injury Report
Burrow will again have to operate behind a patchwork offensive line as tackle Jonah Williams (knee) and guard Alex Cappa (ankle) have been ruled out. They also missed last week’s win, but Burrow was sacked only once by the Bills.
Kelce (knee) is listed as questionable for the Chiefs but is expected to play. Also questionable are wide receivers Mecole Hardman (pelvis) and Justin Watson (illness).
Bengals vs Chiefs Prediction
Though a trio of three-point wins doesn’t exactly constitute a string of blowouts, the Bengals seem to have the formula for beating the Chiefs. Look for Burrow to pull out another close one and get the Bengals back to the Super Bowl for a second straight season.
Pick: Bengals +100 ML
Season record: 7-7 (-0.7 units) ATS), 1-0 (+1.3 units) ML
