Twins-Guardians prediction: Picks, odds on Monday, September 4

The Minnesota Twins (71-66) look to slam the door on the AL Central race as they kick off a series against the Cleveland Guardians (66-71) on Monday, September 4. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET from Progressive Field. Minnesota will send righty Pablo Lopez (9-7, 3.72 ERA) will take the mound for the Twins, while recent waiver acquisition Lucas Giolito (7-11, 4.45) will make his Guardians debut.

The Twins are -148 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Cleveland coming in at +124. The run total is set at 8.

Twins-Guardians picks: Monday, September 4

Injury report

Twins

Out: DH/OF Byron Buxton (right hamstring strain), 1B/OF Alex Kirilloff (right shoulder strain), UTIL Willi Castro (mild left oblique strain), 3B Jose Miranda (right shoulder impingement), SP Chris Paddack (Tommy John surgery)

Guardians

Out: RP Michael Kelly (back)

Starting pitchers

Pablo Lopez vs. Lucas Giolito

Lopez pitched against the Guardians in his most recent outing. In six innings, he let up eight hits and three earned runs while recording five strikeouts. Lopez finished up August with an ERA of 2.25 for the month after going on a stretch of three scoreless starts. Earlier this season, he faced the Guardians and allowed eight hits and six earned runs in 6.2 innings.

Giolito makes his debut in Cleveland here after playing with the White Sox and the Angels already this season. He struggled with Los Angeles, finishing August with an ERA of 7.24 for the month over 27.1 innings pitched. He faced the Twins twice with the White Sox this season and had their number, allowing just a single run over 12 innings in the two starts.

Over/Under pick

The totals of the three games in these two teams’ recent series were 16, 6, and 7. I like the lower end of that here — Giolito might be new to Cleveland, but he has had no issues taking down Twins batter after Twins batter throughout his first stint in the AL Central. Lopez is also solid — see his August ERA above — and shouldn’t give up a ridiculous amount of runs.

Pick: Under 8

Moneyline pick

Giolito may not have pitched with the Guardians before, but he has pitched against the Twins, and he has been on fire against Minnesota this season. The Twins are coming off a series win over the Rangers, and the Guardians won their latest series against the Rays. Cleveland beat Minnesota on the road, and while Lopez has mostly been an ace this season, he hasn’t been able to contain the Guardians.