Twins-Phillies prediction: Picks, odds on Friday, August 11

The Minnesota Twins (60-57) will try to avoid running their losing streak to four in a row as they square off against the suddenly streaking Philadelphia Phillies (64-52) this weekend. First pitch of Friday’s opener is set for 7:05 p.m. ET from Citizens Bank Park. Veteran Dallas Keuchel (0-0, 1.80 ERA) will make his second start for the Twins, while Philly counters with fellow lefty Cristopher Sanchez (0-3, 3.44).

No one else seems interested in winning the AL Central this year, but the Twins haven’t done a lot to sell themselves as legitimate playoff contenders — especially not after dropping three of four to the Tigers this week. After wrapping up their road trip in Philly, they’ll head back home for another series against Detroit next week.

Credit the Trea Turner standing ovation if you want, but whatever it is, the Phillies have started looking more and more like the team that stormed to an NL pennant last year. Philly has won seven of 10, overtaking the Giants for the top NL Wild Card spot. They’ll hit the road after this for two games in Toronto against the Blue Jays starting Tuesday.

Philly enters as -162 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Twins at +136. The run total is set at 9.5.

Twins-Phillies picks: Friday, August 11

Injury report

Twins

Day to day: INF Donovan Solano (knee)
Out: 3B Royce Lewis (oblique), 1B/OF Alex Kirilloff (shoulder), DH Byron Buxton (hamstring), SP Joe Ryan (groin), 1B/3B Jose Miranda (shoulder), RP Brock Stewart (elbow)

Phillies

Out: RP Jose Alvarado (elbow), OF Christian Pache (elbow), OF Brandon Marsh (knee)

Starting pitchers

Dallas Keuchel vs. Cristopher Sanchez

Much respect to Keuchel, who’s battled all the way back to the Majors at age 35 and managed to hold the Arizona Diamondbacks to just one run across five innings in his Twins debut last weekend. But the lefty also allowed a whopping 10 baserunners in that game, and he doesn’t seem to be much different than the pitcher who allowed a 9.20 ERA across stints with three different teams last season.

Both Sanchez and the newly acquired Michael Lorenzen have been so good that Philly is rolling with a six-man rotation for the time being. Sanchez was a revelation in July, with a 2.25 ERA across five starts, but he’s coming off his worst outing of the season last time out — giving up a season-high six runs over five innings against the Kansas City Royals. The lefty has one of the heaviest sinkers in the game, throwing it almost 50% of the time and generating a 57.5% ground-ball rate.

Over/Under pick

It’s possible that the Phillies hit this over all by themselves against Keuchel, but given their year-long struggles against left-handed pitching (17th in team wRC+), that seems like a lot to ask even in this matchup. The Twins, meanwhile, have been even worse against southpaws, ranking among the worst offenses in baseball — and they just got shut out twice in three games in Detroit.

Pick: Under 9.5

Moneyline pick

Don’t overthink this one: Philly has all the mojo, and more importantly, they have a significant advantage on the mound and at the plate.