Angels-Phillies prediction: Picks, odds on Tuesday, August 29

Don’t look now, but the Philadelphia Phillies are starting to look like the reigning NL champs at just the right time. After a 6-4 win in the series opener against the Los Angeles Angels, Philly (72-58) has now four in a row, and a red-hot Trea Turner and Bryce Harper will look to make it five in game two against L.A. (63-68) on Tuesday. The Angels will send lefty Tyler Anderson (5-5, 5.35 ERA) to the mound, while the Phillies counter with Michael Lorenzen (5-7, 3.58).

Philly enters as -155 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Halos at +130. The run total is set at 9.5.

Angels-Phillies picks: Tuesday, August 29

Injury report

Angels

Day to day: SP Chase Silseth (head), 1B Nolan Schanuel (illness)
Out: SS Zach Neto (back), OF Mike Trout (wrist), C Matt Thaiss (shoulder), 1B C.J. Cron (back), SP/RP Jose Suarez (shoulder), RP Ben Joyce (elbow), 3B Anthony Rendon (shin), INF Gio Urshela (pelvis), OF Taylor Ward (facial fracture), OF Jo Adell (oblique)

Phillies

Out: SP Ranger Suarez (hamstring), OF Christian Pache (elbow/knee)

Starting pitchers

Tyler Anderson vs. Michael Lorenzen

Anderson’s rough debut season with the Angels has continued in August: The veteran lefty has made it through five full innings just once in four tries, with 16 runs allowed over his last three starts. His changeup remains a very effective pitch (.304 xSLG, 39.2% whiff rate), but it’s unclear whether the rest of his arsenal can support it enough to get him through a Major League lineup multiple times — hitters are teeing off on his fastball in particular, with a .318 batting average and .599 slugging percentage.

Since welcoming himself to Philadelphia with a no-hitter earlier this month, Lorenzen has crashed back to Earth a bit over his last two starts, with 11 runs allowed (10 earned) on 16 hits and four walks in just nine innings of work. It’s hard not to feel like the wheels are coming off a bit; Lorenzen had overachieved relative to his expected stats all year, and he’s lost the ability to miss bats while catching way too much of the plate of late. (On a possibly related note, the righty has already blown past his career high in innings.)

Over/Under pick

The Angels have been a disaster on offense of late — they rank dead last by a mile in team OPS in August, with an ugly .211/.269/.358 slash line — but even they might be able to pick up a few runs off Lorenzen given how hittable he’s looked of late. And with the Phillies lineup rolling right now (six or more runs in six of their last nine games) a little support from L.A. will be all we need to hit this over.

Pick: Over 9.5

Moneyline pick

Lorenzen does give me pause, but Anderson has also been very flammable on the other side, and Philly just has the far, far more trustworthy lineup in this game. In a slugfest, I’ll back them over this current Angels group every time.