Marlins-Phillies prediction: Picks, odds on Friday, September 8

NL playoff positioning is on the line as the Philadelphia Phillies (77-62) welcome the Miami Marlins (72-68) to town for a big three-game set this weekend. First pitch of Friday’s opener is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. Rookie phenom Eury Perez (5-4, 2.86 ERA) will get the ball for the visitors, while Philly counters with lefty Cristopher Sanchez (2-3, 3.48).

The Phillies enter as -142 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Miami at +120. The run total is set at 9.

Marlins-Phillies picks: Friday, September 8

Injury report

Marlins

Out: SP Sandy Alcantara (flexor tendon), OF/DH Jorge Soler (oblique), OF Avisail Garcia (hamstring), RP Huascar Brazoban (hamstring/hip)

Phillies

Day to day: SS Trea Turner (paternity list)

Starting pitchers

Eury Perez vs. Cristopher Sanchez

Perez took the baseball world by storm over his first two months in the Majors, putting up a 2.36 ERA over his first 12 starts, but he hasn’t been quite able to recapture that same magic since coming back up from the Minors following a month-long hiatus. Sure, the highs are still astronomical — he closed August with 17 Ks over 12 scoreless innings — but the 20-year-old allowed 11 runs (including six homers) across 13.1 innings in his other three starts since his return.

Another rookie who’s come back to Earth a bit lately, Sanchez posted a 4.88 ERA in the month of August — including five runs (three earned) on seven hits over 4.2 innings last time out against the Angels. Everything starts and ends with the sinker for the young lefty, as he throws it nearly 50% of the time and has used it to generate one of the league’s highest ground-ball rates. But the pitch hasn’t been nearly as successful lately, and it got hit hard in his most recent outing.

Over/Under pick

Despite two pitchers who may or may not be hitting the rookie wall, I’m still taking the under here. The Marlins are a thoroughly mediocre lineup without Soler doing damage in the middle of it, and Sanchez has still allowed two or fewer runs in nine of his 14 starts this season. Perez, meanwhile, has suffered from some bad home-run luck — stuff-wise, he still looks absolutely electric — and while the Phillies have been scorching at the plate, I think the young righty is due for a big outing tonight.

Pick: Under 9

Moneyline pick

I do think Perez will keep Miami in this game and keep things relatively low-scoring, but in the end I have much more faith in Bryce Harper and Co. delivering a big hit late than this Marlins offense that nearly gave up a perfect game to Ryan Pepiot last night.