Twins vs. Astros Picks, Predictions & Odds: Will Houston Take Commanding Series Lead?

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08 October 2023

Twins vs. Astros Picks, Predictions & Odds: Will Houston Take Commanding Series Lead?

The Houston Astros pulled off a 6-4 win in Game 1 of the ALDS against the Minnesota Twins, and our top Twins vs. Astros Game 2 picks are based on the MLB odds from our best sports betting sites.

The Minnesota Twins’ Game 1 loss was its 16th straight in the ALDS, with their last win coming all the way back in 2004. Meanwhile, Houston Astros right-handed starter Justin Verlander earned his 17th postseason win, the second-most in MLB history behind only Andy Pettite’s 19.

Here is our best Twins vs. Astros pick (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Twins vs. Astros pick

Houston put the pressure on Minnesota by improving to 8-0 all-time in Game 1 of the ALDS, and winning its 10th straight postseason opener, the longest streak all-time. If the Astros jump out to another early lead, as they did when Jose Altuve became the first player in MLB history to hit a home run on the first pitch his team saw in the postseason, it will be difficult for Minnesota to overcome.

However, we expect Twins righty Pablo Lopez to settle in early tonight, which will help lead to a pitcher’s duel overall.

Lopez’s stats are somewhat inflated, considering he made 11 starts against bottom-five offenses this year. However, he has been as consistent as they come over the last four seasons, with a low ERA of 3.07 and a high of 3.75. The atmosphere at Minute Maid Park should not be too big for him, as he had a 3.10 road ERA compared to a 4.21 ERA at home this season, and his OBA, WHIP, and GO/AO ratio were all better on the road.

Astros southpaw Framber Valdez has a career .778 winning percentage in 13 postseason appearances (12 starts). And after a year in which he led the league with a 0.5 HR/9 rate, he only allowed 19 home runs in 198 innings this season. The Twins are in their worse hitting split against a lefty, as they ranked 17th in the regular season in BABIP on the road against southpaws while striking out at the fourth-highest rate of all AL teams (24.9%) in that split.

We are making this a confident four-star play despite the Over cashing in each of Minnesota’s last six night games against AL opponents.

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Twins vs. Astros best odds

There is much better value to be had in terms of juice at FanDuel, whose -106 price beats the -115 found at all of our other best sports betting apps.

Game 1 had a similar total of 8 runs, while the Over cashed as early as the top of the seventh inning. We would play this total down to 7.5, especially if we were to get plus-money odds based on where the total initially opened.

Twins vs. Astros odds

DraftKings has the shortest moneyline odds for Astros backers at -135, while BetMGM is the highest of any sportsbook at -145. Early line movement has gone in Houston’s favor, especially at DraftKings, where the price rose from -130 to -135 within the first hour of initially opening. Minnesota has won each of its last six games as underdogs against AL West opponents following a loss.

FanDuel was the only sportsbook to open with a total of 8.5, as all others have remained at 8 since the initial opening. At this time, 58% percent of the early wagers have backed the Under.