Astros vs. Rangers Prediction, Picks & Odds

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17 October 2023

Astros vs. Rangers Prediction, Picks & Odds

The Texas Rangers areundefeated in the postseason heading into Wednesday’s ALCS Game 3 against theHouston Astros, and we make our top Astros vs. Rangers predictions based on thebest MLB odds.

Texas has a 2-0 lead in the ALCS over Houston after winning thefirst two games at Minute Maid Park by a combined 7-4 scoreline. Per MLB’s Sarah Langs, teams thattake a 2-0 lead in a best-of-seven series have won those series 84% of the time(75-14), while teams that have won the first two games on the road in abest-of-seven have won 90% of the time (26-3).

DraftKings currently has the Rangers’ odds at -450 to win thisseries.

Here is our best Astros vs. Rangers prediction for Game 3 of the ALCS (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Astros vs. Rangers prediction: ALCS Game 3

Over 9 (-110 viaDraftKings, BetMGM, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

The Rangers have been dominant during their current seven-game postseason winning streak, as their +23 run differential is tied withthis year’s Philadelphia Phillies squad for the sixth-best through the firstseven games of a single postseason in MLB history. Houston will need to rely onthe experience of reaching seven consecutive Championship Series to wake itsoffense up and dig it out of a 0-2 hole. And even though Rangers righty MaxScherzer is a likely first-ballot Hall of Famer, perhaps nothing can ruinTexas’ momentum more than inserting a starting pitcher who last pitched over amonth ago.

Scherzer last took the mound on Sept. 12, as he has spent the last five weeks on the IL with a teresmajor strain in his right shoulder. Even though he has gone 4-2 with a 3.20 ERAfor Texas since being acquired from the New York Mets, Scherzer has battledseveral injuries this year, which raised speculation that his latest injurywould be season-ending.

Scherzer threw 69 pitches in a simulated start a few days ago,but asking him to quiet an Astros offense that posted a 122 wRC+, .805 OPS, 9.1%walk rate, and 18.5% strikeout rate from Aug. 1 to the end of the regularseason is a tall task.

Opposing Scherzer is Cristian Javier, who has not allowed a runin his previous 11 innings across one postseason start and his last regular-season start. However, Javier has just a 26.1% ground ball rate(which ranks in the first percentile), and though he has gone 21 consecutiveinnings without allowing a home run, the Rangers hit an AL-best 143 home runsat home this season — 19 more than any other team.

We expect some regression from Javier, whose .443 xSLGthis year was by far the worst of his career, while Texas slugged an MLB-best.495 at home. This is a three-star play, as Javier walked five batters in hislone postseason start this season against the Minnesota Twins, and Texas hadthe second-highest walk rate of any AL team.

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Astros vs. Rangers best odds

DraftKings, BetMGM, bet365 (-110)

FanDuelis the lone sportsbook that offers a total as high as 9.5 runs, as our fourother best sports betting sites are all in unison with an O/U of 9.0. Three of those four(DraftKings, BetMGM, bet365) charge the standard -110 juice on either sideof the total, and those are our go-to shops, as we are avoiding Caesars’slightly higher price of -115.

Astros vs. Rangers odds

None of the best sports betting apps have wavered off the original number in terms of the total, but therehave been odds shifts at various shops. FanDuel dropped from -115 to back theOver of 9.5 down to +100, while bet365 opened at -120 for the Over of 9.0 andhas since lowered to -110. Early wagers are 3/1 in favor of the Under, despitethe Over cashing in the previous four games between these AL West rivals atGlobe Life Field.

Whileour other four best sportsbooks all have Texas as -130 moneyline favorites,FanDuel is slightly lower with a price of -126. That price at FanDuel is downfrom an opening number of -132, while BetMGM raised its odds from Texas -125 to-130 from Monday night into Tuesday.

Houston has won each of its last eightgames as road underdogs following a loss.