Twins vs. Astros prediction: Pick, odds for Game 1 of ALDS in 2023 MLB playoffs

After sweeping the Toronto Blue Jays in front of a raucous home crowd in the Wild Card round, the Minnesota Twins now hit the road for a titanic ALDS matchup against the reigning World Series champion Houston Astros. Game 1 from Minute Maid Park in Houston is set for 4:45 p.m. ET. Righty Bailey Ober will get the start over Joe Ryan for the Twins, while the Astros counter with future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander.

Houston enters as a -155 favorite on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Minnesota at +130. The run total is set at 7.5.

Twins vs. Astros ALDS Game 1 picks: Saturday, October 7

Injury report

Twins

Doubtful: OF/DH Byron Buxton (knee)

Astros

N/A

Starting pitchers

Bailey Ober vs. Justin Verlander

There was some thought that Minnesota would opt for Joe Ryan in this spot, but given Ryan’s injury-marred second half in which he posted a 6.09 ERA with a whopping 16 homers in just 54.2 innings, manager Rocco Baldelli has opted for Ober instead. It’s not hard to see why: After getting sent down to the Minors for a couple of weeks in early September for a physical and mental reset, the righty dealt over his final four starts of the year, with five runs allowed over 21.2 innings. Ober won’t light up any radar guns, but his command is impeccable (93rd-percentile walk rate), and as long as he’s keeping his fastball at the top of the zone and his slider and changeup down, he can have a lot of success.

Surprise, surprise. Verlander got off to a slightly bumpy start in his return to the Astros, with a 3.86 ERA and 4.60 FIP over his first eight starts in Houston. Lo and behold, though: As the season came to a close, the future Hall of Famer started to lock in, delivering consecutive gems — eight innings of one-run ball in a win over the Mariners in Seattle and five shutout innings against the Diamondbacks last weekend — to help the ‘Stros steal the AL West. He doesn’t have the premium velocity he did in his prime, but he’s still as safe a bet as any to shover in October.

Over/Under pick

This number feels far too high given the pitching staffs at play here. Verlander has been sensational recently and has an October track record that can match up with just about anyone. The Twins, meanwhile, have a lights-out bullpen with which they can support Ober — especially given that Pablo Lopez be back to start Game 2. Houston brings a ton of firepower to the table, but they’re worse against righties than lefties, and I think Minnesota matches up relatively well.

Pick: Under 7.5

Moneyline pick

This has more to do with the line here than with who I think the more talented team here is, so please don’t take this as disrespectful of the Astros. But there’s really not much juice at all on Houston, so it’s hard to argue that backing them is really worth the risk considering how great Minnesota’s pitching is. The Twins should be able to keep this game close into the later innings, and if that’s the case, I’d much rather have the +130 ticket than the -155 one.