Twins vs. Yankees prediction and odds for Friday, April 14 (Trust Nasty Nestor)

Both the New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins are off to really strong starts this season. That’s what makes this four-game weekend series in the Bronx so intriguing in how the American League is going to shake out midway through April. 

For Game 2, it’ll be Nestor Cortes Jr. pitching for the Yankees and Tyler Mahle for the Twins. Cortes Jr. has a 2.61 ERA and is 2-0 through his first two outings. He’s keeping the magic of the past two years going. Mahle hasn’t been nearly as good at 1-1 with a 4.09 ERA. 

That matchup on the mound is a big reason that the Yanks are favored at home. Let’s take a look at the odds for this one. 

The Twins could struggle against Cortes Jr. in this one. Byron Buxton is hitting the ball well with an .846 OPS.

However, Carlos Correa has an OPS south of .500, and none of the other right handed bats in this lineup are stepping up. This lineup has gotten a boost from Joey Gallo, but now he’s on the IL, and that means a thin lineup is even thinner.

They are 23rd in team OPS vs. lefties, and their 14 hits off southpaws are the fewest of any team in MLB. In their defense, they do have the fewest at-bats against lefties. 

Cortes Jr. just continues to navigate successfully through 5+ inning starts and limiting the damage of the opposing lineup. He has also gotten a lot of run support: 13 runs in two games from his own team. That’s likely to be the case with the Yanks against Mahle. 

New York is 10th in runs scored and 10th in team OPS.

The Yankees aren’t dominating offensively, but they are fourth in homers, and in Mahle’s six starts with Minnesota, dating back to when he came over midseason in 2022, he has given up five home runs in 27.1 innings.

That’s not a terrible number for a pitcher, but I like the Yanks to go yard and win on a Friday night in the Bronx. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change