UEFA Champions League, Round of 16: March 12th, 2024

The UEFA Champions League is back as the Round of 16 has the second leg of play continues today! We’ve had four teams already punch their ticket, congrats PSG, Munich, Man City and Real Madrid.

Now in the next two weeks we have four more spots to fill, so let’s breakdown today’s matches!

Let’s break these games down and find our best bets!

Arsenal is down 1-nil on aggregate but are back at home against FC Porto. After losing 1-nil on the road, the Gunners have won three straight games in fairly dominant fashion. Since their last UEFA Champions League loss, they have successfully outscoring their opponents 12-2 in their L3 games.

Now, they are also 4-0 in their L4 games at home, outscoring opponents 14-3 in that stretch of games. Arsenal certainly has the talent to pick up this dominant win and advance, and I think the books have the same thoughts.

Much like Bayern last week, Arsenal is down 1-nil but are coming back home. Plus they are listed at around (-285) to advance.

We suspected a dominant performance by Munich last week and it came to fruition, so I think we see something similar today.

The Pick: Arsenal -1.5 (-140) Bovada

In their first match, these squads played to a 1-1 draw, but Barcelona absolutely dominated. Possession was about even, but Barcelona tallied 12 shots and 6 on target, compared to Napoli’s 7 shots and only 1 on target that happened to find the back of the net.

Since that game, Napoli has been unbeaten for 4 games, collecting two wins and two draws in Serie A play. Barcelona has also been unbeaten in 3 games since the UEFA Champions League showdown, collecting two home shutout wins and a nil-nil draw on the road.

Both teams have said that this is essentially their “match of the year” and I expect both teams to be playing like such.

For this game, I’ll take a stab at the under. I’m going to pay a little juice for under 3 (-136), as I could see this finishing 2-1 in extra time. However, I’m betting on another 1-1 draw that eventually is settled by PKs.

The Pick: Barcelona/Napoli Under 3 (-136) Bovada

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