UFC 283: Prelim Picks and Predictions
There's plenty of Brazilian flavor on the UFC 283 preliminary card, but it may not be a pleasant result for the home crowd, especially in Shogun Rua's farewell bout against Ihor Potieria. Our UFC picks break down the event's early bouts.
UFC 283 is the first major card for 2023, and Rio de Janeiro will host a massive event headlined by a light heavyweight title fight between Jamahal Hill and Glover Teixeira, as well as the first tetralogy in UFC history when Deiveson Figuereido and Brandon Moreno collide once more.
The main card figures to be explosive, but the preliminary fights feature a lot of local flavors as well as several excellent UFC odds that can make your night profitable.
Here are our free picks and predictions for the UFC 283 preliminaries on January 21.
UFC 283 prelim picks and predictions
Moses vs. Costa
• Prediction: Moses ML (-380)
• Best Bet: Moses by submission (+165)
McKinney vs. Bonfim
• Prediction: McKinney ML (-125)
• Best Bet: McKinney ML (-125)
Rua vs. Poteria
• Prediction: Potieria ML (-205)
• Best Bet: Potieria by KO/TKO/DQ (+120)
Click on each fight to jump to the full analysis.
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Brazilian standouts are packing the preliminary cards, but the odds are stacked against them. Moses is a near 4/1 favorite over Costa, who doesn’t defend well against takedowns and is taking a massive step up in competition. Not only is Costa stepping in to replace Guram Kutateladze, but he’s tailor-made for Moses.
Losses to Beneil Dariush, Damir Ismagulov, and Islam Makhachev have aged well for Moses. If he comes out looking as strong as he did in his lone fight of 2022, a blitzing win over Christos Giagos, he’ll win without much trouble.
At the same time, Costa’s aggression is going to work against him as he’ll force his way right into a takedown. We like Moses to wrap Costa up and get him to submit at +165.
Prediction: Moses moneyline (-380 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: Moses by submission (+165 at DraftKings)
There’s a lot to like about McKinney. Unfortunately, concerns about his conditioning and overall technique make what should be a blowout turn into a close fight according to the odds. Bonfim looked solid in his appearance on Dana White’s Contender Series, so, oddly, his promotional debut is against a dangerous opponent.
McKinney is an explosive striker that comes forward with a lot of athleticism, and he hits like a mule. He’ll run out of steam, but the shots he landed that nearly stopped Drew Dober a few months ago would stop most other fighters. Bonafim will be right there for McKinney, and that won’t work out too well for him.
All of McKinney’s fights have ended in a finish, and all of his fights have ended in the first round since 2019. While Bonfim might have the goods, this is too big of a step for him as a first fight in the UFC. McKinney will get a stoppage here, so we're picking him straight up at -125.
Prediction: McKinney moneyline (-125 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: McKinney moneyline (-125 at DraftKings)
“Shogun” has already made his intentions known that the Potieria fight will be his last. The former light heavyweight champion is calling it a career at 41 and is doing it on his terms in front of a Brazilian crowd who will give him plenty of love. That said, Rua shouldn’t expect any sympathy from Potieira, who is coming off a loss in his UFC debut. There’s too much mileage on Rua to score a win here.
That’s not to say Rua is without options. The Ukrainian is as green as can be and holds his hands low when he gets in his opponent's range. Unfortunately, Rua won’t be the first to fire when they do get in that range, and that is usually a recipe for disaster regardless of the difference in class.
Fighters going into their farewell matches usually go on their backs. This isn’t the end a legend like Rua is deserving of, but that’s the business. The call is Potieria stopping Rua at some point at +120.
Prediction: Potieria moneyline (-205 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: Potieria by KO/TKO/DQ (+120 at DraftKings)
