UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Lewis

WSN

10 November 2023

UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Lewis - Picks & Predictions

Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis - Heavyweight division

Gabriel Bonfim vs. Nicolas Dalby - Welterweight division

Our pick: Gabriel Bonfim (-600)

Rodrigo Nascimento vs. Don’Tale Mayes - Heavyweight division

Our pick: Rodrigo Nascimento (-185)

Caio Borralho vs. Abus Magomedov - Middleweight division

Our pick: Caio Borralho (-290)

Rodolfo Vieira vs. Armen Petrosyan - Middleweight division

Our pick: Armen Petrosyan (-110)

Ismael Bonfim vs. Vinc Pichel - Lightweight division

Our pick: Ismael Bonfim (-520)

Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis - Heavyweight Division

Let’s clear the elephant in the room: earlier this week, Derrick Lewis faced charges of reckless driving. Although this event will proceed as scheduled, will this affect Lewis’ mentality heading into this main event, for which he is already a replacement fighter?

Lewis is feeling high, having recently snapped a three-fight losing skid with his win over Marcos Rogerio de Lima in July, but he is stepping in on short notice to take on a younger fighter who has yet to see a third round in the UFC in Jailton Almeida.

Almeida is undefeated in the UFC (five wins) and is on a 14-fight winning streak that hasn't seen him lose a professional fight since 2018.

Almeida most recently won his most impressive bout to date, earning a first-round submission win over Jairzinho Rozenstruik this past May - earning him his third performance bonus in a row.

These men stand at an equal height and share the same reach, but we can’t bet against Almeida in this one despite how fan-friendly Derrick Lewis can be.

Almeida is the clear favorite at -500 in this main event, and the likelihood of this fight lasting the distance is incredibly low at -10000.

Gabriel Bonfim vs. Nicolas Dalby - Welterweight Division

Enjoying a winning streak of three in a row, Nicolas Dalby hopes to become the first man to defeat Brazilian fighter Gabriel Bonfim in the co-main event this weekend.

Dalby has won three decisions in a row, including his most recent over Muslim Salikhov. Fighting on the same card as his brother (we’ll get there), Gabriel Bonfim translated his first-round win on the Contender Series into back-to-back first round wins in his first two UFC bouts. He has finished Mounir Lazzez and Trevin Giles, both by guillotine submission.

Bonfim is the largest betting favorite on the main card at -600, and there are -110 odds that the fight will be finished within the first round.

Rodrigo Nascimento vs. Don’Tale Mayes - Heavyweight Division

With similar age, similar reach, and similar records in their last three fights, these heavyweights should put on a show this weekend.

Nascimento is 2-1 with one no-contest in his last four, but those two wins have come back-to-back against Tanner Boser and Ilir Latifi.

Mayes is also 2-1 with one no-contest in his last four and is coming off of a win over former heavyweight champion Andre Arlovski.

Caio Borralho vs. Abus Magomedov - Middleweight Division

After an impressive first-round KO win over Dustin Stoltfus in his UFC debut, German fighter Abus Magomedov is looking to rebound from his second-round TKO loss at the hands of now-champion Sean Strickland back in July.

To do so, he’ll have to defeat Caio Borralho, a black belt in both BJJ and Muay Thai who is undefeated in the UFC and on an 11-fight professional winning streak.

Magomedov has the height and reach advantages over Borralho but is still listed as the underdog at +235.

Rodolfo Vieira vs. Armen Petrosyan - Middleweight Division

One of the taller middleweights in the promotion, Armen Perosyan, has gone 3-1 since joining the UFC and has won his last two fights over AJ Dobson and Christian Leroy Duncan.

This Saturday, he takes on Rodolfo Vieira in a pick ‘em matchup in which both fighters are listed as -110.

Vieira is 2-2 in his last four fights and is coming off of a second-round submission win over Cody Brundage.

Petrosyan stands four-inches taller, but that won’t translate into the reach department, in which Vieira will have the two-inch advantage.

Ismael Bonfim vs. Vinc Pichel - Lightweight Division

The brother of co-main event fighter Gabriel Bonfim, Ismael Bonfim will kick off the main card and is almost as big of a betting favorite - sitting as a -520 favorite to defeat his opponent Vinc Pichel.

At 40-years-old, Pichel only recently had a three-fight winning streak snapped by the hands of Mark Madsen, who defeated him via decision in April 2022. This will be his first fight of the 2023 calendar year.

Bonfim is also coming off of a loss - a first-round submission loss to Benoit Saint-Denis that snapped his six-fight winning streak.

Pichel is taller and longer, but youth, as well as the fact that he has been more active, is on Bonfim’s side.