UFC 287: Rosas Jr. vs Rodriguez Fight Prediction, Odds & Picks

UFC 287 is coming up on Saturday, featuring a main card filled with exciting matchups. One of the bouts featuring a considerable amount of attention is the bantamweight showdown between Raul Rosas Jr. and Christian Rodriguez.

The undefeated Rosas has grabbed the MMA world by storm at just 18 years old, however, Rodriguez has put together a solid resumé of his own. Considering how neither bantamweight fighter is ranked at the moment, it’s easy to see how important a victory is this weekend.

There’s a lot to consider before Rosas and Rodriguez go head-to-head — especially from a betting perspective. Fortunately, Betting News has you covered with the UFC 287 fight’s latest odds, as well as a prediction and the best bets for the matchup.

Raul Rosas Jr vs. Christian Rodriguez — Tale of the Tape

Raul Rosas Jr. — Christian Rodriguez

• Record: 7-0 — 8-1
• Height: 5’9” — 5’7”
• Reach: 67” — 71”
• Weight: 135lbs — 135lbs
• Age: 18 — 25
• Fighting Stance: Switch — Orthodox
• Knockouts: 1 — 3

UFC 287: Rosas vs. Rodriguez Fight Odds (as of Wednesday, April 5)

Odds are via our top reviewed and recommended sportsbooks.

FanDuel Sportsbook

• Raul Rosas Jr. -250
• Christian Rodriguez +198

Caesars Sportsbook

• Raul Rosas Jr. -260
• Christian Rodriguez +210

BetRivers

• Raul Rosas Jr. -250
• Christian Rodriguez +195

BetMGM

• Raul Rosas Jr. -250
• Christian Rodriguez +200

Rosas Favored to Remain Undefeated

The four highlighted sportsbooks are in agreement that Rosas will walk out of UFC 287 with his undefeated record intact. He’s available at an average of -253 odds across the four oddsmakers, carrying an implied win probability of 71.7%.

Rosas began his MMA career by dominating the Mexican scene, going 5-0 in UWC Mexico. Even more impressive than his flawless start was the fact that he finished each of his first five opponents — four by submission and one by TKO.

It didn’t take long for Rosas to leave his mark in the United States, defeating Mando Gutierrez by unanimous decision on Dana White’s Contender Series 2022. After that, he made his PPV debut at UFC 282, overcoming Jay Perrin with a first-round submission victory via face crank.

Standing across from Rosas is Rodriguez, who’s looking to build his own winning streak. The 25-year-old has had mixed results in the UFC thus far. After defeating Ryan McIntosh by unanimous in his debut, Rodriguez found himself losing to Jonathan Pearce via points in the subsequent outing.

Fortunately, Rodriguez got back on track in his next fight. It only took him one round to lock Joshua Weems in an anaconda choke, forcing the latter to submit at 4:07 into the opening frame. Now, the Milwaukee, WI native hopes to win consecutive fights for the first time in his UFC tenure.

It’ll be interesting to see how much offense Rodriguez will get in this weekend. Rosas has been elusive thus far, only absorbing 0.9 significant hits per minute. The 18-year-old also has the grappling advantage, averaging 4.23 takedowns per 15 minutes with 62% accuracy. For reference, Rodriguez only has a 56% takedown defense rate.

Nevertheless, this fight should be an exciting one between two bantamweights with a lot to prove.

UFC 287 Betting Markets & Trends for Rosas vs. Rodriguez

Although there isn’t anything wrong with moneyline betting, it doesn’t always provide the most value. Fortunately, Betting News has gathered other markets from FanDuel Sportsbook that might be more intriguing options.

FanDuel lists Rosas winning by submission as the likeliest method of victory at +170 odds. Again, five of his previous seven victories have come by submission. Although Rodriguez has never been submitted, he certainly doesn’t have the ground game to outwrestle his younger counterpart.

On the flip side, Rodriguez’s top method of victory is also to win by points — albeit at +390 odds. “CeeRod” has only gone the distance twice in his career, going 1-1 in that scenario.

Despite both fighters’ top victory method being to win by points, FanDuel doesn’t see this fight reaching the time limit. Rosas vs. Rodriguez is favored to not go the distance at -140 odds.

If this matchup does see a finish, Rosas is favored to win by first-round submission (+410). Having said that, four of his five career submission victories have occurred in Round 1.

As for Rodriguez’s top method & round combo, he’s most likely to win by KO/TKO in the first round at +2300. Two of his three knockout wins happened in the opening frame.

Rosas vs. Rodriguez UFC 287 Fight Prediction

As impressive as Rodriguez has been, I see Rosas remaining undefeated once the dust settles. He’s lived up to the hype as the youngest fighter in UFC history and has all of the momentum on his side. Considering how he has the defense and grappling advantages, I just don’t see how Rosas can lose to Rodriguez at UFC 287.

For the best bet, take Rosas winning by submission at +170. He’s a submission master and has finished all but two of his previous seven opponents by making them submit. Though Rodriguez has yet to tap out, he doesn’t have the grappling defense to escape the opposition’s holds. If the veteran can’t weather the storm early on, this fight could be over soon.

UFC 287 Event Details

When is UFC 287?

UFC 287 will take place on Saturday, April 8, 2023.

Where is UFC 287?

UFC 287 will take place at the Miami-Dade Arena in Miami, Florida.

What time does UFC 287 start?

• UFC 287 Early Prelims Start Time: 6 p.m. ET
• UFC 287 Prelims Start Time: 8 p.m. ET
• Start Time of UFC 287’s Main Card: 10 p.m. ET

How can I watch UFC 287?

The early prelims will be available on UFC Fight Pass, while the prelims will be available on both ESPN and ESPN+, and the main card will be available via pay-per-view (which can be ordered through the ESPN+ app).