UFC Fight Night 237: Rosas Jr. vs. Turcios odds, picks and predictions
In a 3-round bantamweight bout on the main card, Raul Rosas Jr. and Ricky Turcios meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 237 — also known as UFC on ESPN+ 95 — at Arena CDMX in Mexico City. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 237: Rosas Jr. vs. Turcios odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims begin at 7 p.m. ET, and can be viewed on ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET, also on ESPN+.
Records: Rosas Jr. (8-1-0) | Turcios (13-3-0)
The 19-year-old Mexican phenom Rosas Jr. has posted 2 wins in 3 fights since making his debut at UFC 282 with a 1st-round submission win over Jay Perrin. He also knocked out Terrence Mitchell in just 54 seconds at the special Noche UFC event Sept. 16, 2023.
Turcios posted a split-decision win over Kevin Natividad, and he has ended up going the distance in his 3 fights at the UFC level, as well as a decision win over Liudvik Sholinian at The Ultimate Fighter 20 Semifinal in July 2021.
Turcios has a 4-inch reach advantage. He also has racked up 5.08 significant strikes per minute in his UFC career, while Rosas Jr. is a little more accurate with 58.45% significant strikes accuracy. The teen is strong on the mat, too, posting a 3.57 takedown average and 1.78 submission average.
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UFC Fight Night 237: Rosas Jr. vs. Turcios odds
BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:15 a.m. ET.
UFC Fight Night 237: Rosas Jr. vs. Turcios picks and predictions
Rosas (-225) will cost you more than 2 times your potential, and that’s way too much risk betting the favorite straight up. Let’s get a little more specific instead.
However, ROSAS BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+125) on the 5-way line is a much better play. His 2 victories since arriving at the UFC level have resulted in 1st-round victories.
On the flip side, Turcios (+185) has ended up going the distance in his 3 fights since arriving at the UFC level, as well as his lone bout in Dana White’s Contender Series, and his only fight in Bellator.
UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (+120) is a strong play at plus-money. While Turcios has repeatedly ended up going the distance, there is risk. But Rosas rarely wastes any time. He might get pushed to Round 2, which would be a rarity, but it’s unlikely to go much deeper than that.
NO: WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? (-135) is worth a look if you’re a little more of a conservative bettor, and you feel there might be a chance the fight goes well past the middle of Round 3.
