UFC 288 Kron Gracie vs Charles Jourdain Picks and Predictions

Charles Jourdain may not be the most talented fighter on the UFC 288 program, but it looks like he'll take advantage of a mismatch against an opponent in Kron Gracie who hasn't fought in 42 months. Find out how our UFC betting picks are attacking this one.

Kron Gracie vs. Charles Jourdain is scheduled for three rounds in the featherweight division as a featured undercard attraction on the UFC 288 card from Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey.

The Gracie family is MMA royalty, and Kron hopes to end an extended break from competition at Jourdain’s expense. 

UFC odds aren’t in Gracie’s favor, as Jourdain is a -180 favorite. Gracie is a +155 underdog.

Here are our picks and predictions for Gracie vs. Jourdain at UFC 288 in New Jersey.

Kron Gracie vs Charles Jourdain fight odds

Kron Gracie vs Charles Jourdain method of victory odds

Kron Gracie vs Charles Jourdain picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Kron Gracie vs Charles Jourdain betting preview

Kron Gracie has an established background in grappling, but his skills might not be transferable to the UFC. After winning his first five fights by submission, Gracie couldn’t take Cub Swanson to the ground and looked completely lost on his way to a decision loss. Afterwards, Gracie went off the radar and hasn’t been seen in 42 months.

The best we can manage is that Gracie has taken care of himself, looking to be in decent shape and ready to get back on track. Despite Jourdain’s two-fight skid, this is a big ask for a relatively inexperienced MMA fighter coming off a long layoff. If Gracie has fixed whatever kept him out of the octagon all this time, he could be a formidable talent considering his BJJ alone is so dangerous.

Regardless of how rusty Gracie may be, Jourdain often gets taken down, and each takedown might mean he’s seconds away from a win. Hopefully, Gracie has tightened up his striking, otherwise, he’s going to get beaten up again looking lost and unable to use his precious BJJ skills once more. 

Though anything can happen in a fight, Charles Jourdain looks to be getting a high-profile freebie. The Canadian is coming off consecutive losses to Nathanial Wood and Shane Burgos, and he’s getting a slot on a major UFC card against a member of the fabled Gracie clan who hasn’t fought for nearly four years.

Jourdain is a striker who has fought nine times since Gracie’s last appearance. In his recent performances, he’s shown a remarkable vulnerability to takedowns, eating the canvas seven times in his last two losses. When Jourdain has an opening, he can be an effective finisher, with 12 of his 13 wins coming inside the distance.

This should be a simple one for Jourdain. As long as he can keep the fight standing, he should outwork Gracie and find plenty of openings for big shots. Not to slight the Gracie name, but we are a long way from their glory days. Even so, Jourdain has to tread carefully. 

Kron Gracie vs Charles Jourdain tale of the tape

Kron Gracie vs Charles Jourdain UFC prediction and best bet

Fight prediction: Jourdain ML

Gracie used to be a great grappler, but it was clear in 2019 he wasn’t cut out for the UFC. During that time, Jourdain fought nine times. If Jourdain can’t beat Gracie, who presents doubt regarding his heart and competitive mentality, he’s in trouble. 

Of course, this fight could go south in a hurry for him if Gracie gets him on the ground. Aside from that, Jourdain should run roughshod on Gracie’s insufficient striking defense, becoming more dangerous as the fight goes on.

Prediction: Jourdain ML (-180 at DraftKings)

Fight best bet: Jourdain to Win in Rounds 1-2

There are two outcomes I see in this one. Either Gracie manages to drag Jourdain down and gets a submission in the first round, or he is too rusty and succumbs to Jourdain’s strikes at any point after. Either way, this fight shouldn’t go the distance.

With Gracie needing to shake off the rust, there might be a brief moment of hope followed by long stretches of misery. Jourdain isn’t the class of the division, and he could cough it up, but we have enough faith in him to stop a fighter that doesn’t belong in the octagon. 

Pick: Jourdain to Win in Rounds 1-2 (+140 at DraftKings)