UFC 297 predictions, odds, best bets: Breaking down Sean Strickland vs. Driscus Du Plessis and more

The calendar has rolled into 2024, and with the short UFC hiatus behind us, we are set for another full season of action, starting this week with UFC 297 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

I will be here for every PPV this year, breaking down a few of my favorite fights for you from a matchup and betting perspective. And let me just say, we have some amazing cards coming up in the next few months.

If you’re interested in matchup analysis for every fight on every card, you can always find that on my site DailyFanMMABrettAppley

Today, we’ll cover the two championship fights between Sean Strickland and Dricus Du Plessis, and Mayra Bueno Silva and Raquel Pennington, as well as another great matchup from the card below.

Sean Strickland vs. Dricus Du Plessis

Yes, it’s the first championship fight of 2024, but this is arguably one of the most odd championship fights in recent memory. Sean Strickland? Dricus Du Plessis? This is for the middleweight championship of the world?

While both fighters have proven worthy of the accomplishment, I’d be lying if I said this is a matchup I saw coming for stakes this high.

Sean Strickland is a blue-collar, mouthy individual who has strung it all together inside the Octagon at the right time. Dricus Du Plessis is a power-based kickboxer who’s seemingly fought through exhaustion every time to come out with his hand raised.

To be fair, I have always respected Strickland’s skills and I even gave him a chance to compete with Israel Adesanya, whom he took the title from in September.

Strickland fights at a high pace and throws consistent volume. Over 25 minutes, that is an important and dangerous skill set to have, and Adesanya was simply not able to match him or gain any respect.

It’s also the skill set that will give Strickland a chance against nearly any opponent in this division. He lands 5.82 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.24 with a 63 percent defensive rate. He has no problem with cardio or pacing, and he’s topped out at 186 and 182 sig. strikes in five rounds.

The downside to Strickland’s game is that he’s not a major power threat. He usually fights in sparring mode and won’t overexert himself to chase a finish. While he’s skillful on the mat, Strickland only lands 0.92 takedowns per 15 minutes, and it’s generally not a priority in his game plan.

Du Plessis has been much more of a finisher in his MMA career, and he’s won four of his six fights in the UFC by knockout, including his most recent bout against the former champion Robert Whittaker.

Du Plessis, in comparison to Strickland, is much more explosive. He’s more kicking-based, while Strickland is more boxing based. Du Plessis has also been a more willing wrestler, averaging 2.72 takedowns per 15 minutes, and he locked up a neck crank on Darren Till in 2022.

My issue with Du Plessis is that fights more stiffly and flails around a bit too much for my liking in striking exchanges. That can come with the territory of a fighter who chases knockouts, but I wouldn’t label Du Plessis as a precise, technical fighter. And because he exerts himself early, he’s gotten tired a lot. There’s been a few different occasions inside the Octagon where it legitimately looked like he was gassing out.

To his credit, he’s survived every time. But when you’re fighting an opponent like Derek Brunson, who has three minutes of cardio, I need to point out that it’s easier to come back in a situation like that compared to an opponent like Strickland, who will never stop.

It’s tough to be super confident in this fight and there’s going to be high-variance exchanges early, but I do lean toward the current champion in Strickland.

I am more confident in Strickland’s pacing, cardio and defense over 25 minutes. Du Plessis is more likely to have early success, and he’s more likely to inflict major damage and win by knockout.

That outcome is possible, as Strickland was KO’d early by Alex Pereira and by Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. But in an extended fight, it’s very difficult for me to pick against Strickland.

Du Plessis has only absorbed more than 37 strikes in a fight once. His career high in strikes absorbed was 82 against Brad Tavares. I’m just much less confident when he’s facing an opponent who will consistently move forward, and won’t give him space to recover. Strickland, for better or worse, isn’t likely to be afraid of Du Plessis’ power either.

Either side can wrestle, but I don’t see the grappling game being super impactful in this bout. Strickland should be able to scramble free if he’s ever taken down and I don’t expect Strickland to pursue a ground game either.

So, ultimately, it’s the distance, volume, cardio, and defense of Strickland versus the explosive power threat of Du Plessis. I always side with the better extended fighter but I would never count Du Plessis out.

On BetMGM, Strickland is favored at -125, an implied win rate of 55.56 percent. I would cap him higher than that, and he’s a perceived moneyline value in my mind.

However, if he loses, it will probably come swiftly and dominantly, which is scary. I don’t mind taking a shot on Du Plessis to win by KO/TKO at +200, if you generally like him in this matchup, as I consider that the most likely outcome for him in a victory.

I also think Strickland has a real chance to win by KO/TKO at +200, though I would still prefer his moneyline in this case, if you want the action.

Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Raquel Pennington

With Amanda Nunes sailing off into the sunset, the UFC will look for a new star to reign over the women’s bantamweight division, and that search will start with a vacant championship fight between Mayra Bueno Silva and Raquel Pennington.

Pennington previously challenged for the title against Nunes in 2018, and was TKO’d in the fifth round. She’s an ultra-tough, ultra-experienced fighter with a very impressive career resume.

In fact, Pennington has fought in the UFC 17 times, and she has only lost to Nunes, Holly Holm (twice), Jessica Andrade and Germaine de Randamie. She’s also won five in a row and six of her last seven, so Pennington is clearly on form.

Mayra Bueno Silva is a newer addition to the upper echelon of this division, and she’s won four fights in a row, including a recent guillotine finish over Holly Holm.

I will say this straight from the top, though: I am not at all confident in Bueno Silva, and she doesn’t have the type of game that I typically feel comfortable investing in at chalk prices. Let me explain.

The gist is this – Bueno Silva has had most of her success in the UFC with her submission grappling game. Six of her tracked seven wins (one on DWCS) have come by submission.

The problem is that Bueno Silva did not land takedowns in nearly all cases. Most instances have come when her opponents take her down, and she’s able to lock up an armbar from guard.

More recently, Holm controlled Bueno Silva in the clinch and stuck her head into the wrong spot for too long.

I love the submission game, but I love it when my fighters can land takedowns, control their opponent, advance position, and lock up a predictable submission like the RNC or an arm triangle. Relying on my fighter to have such terrible takedown defense that they find themselves in a position to lock up a submission from the bottom, is not a sound, long-term betting strategy.

To credit Silva, she landed the very first takedowns of her career against Lina Lansberg in 2023 and then finished the fight with a kneebar. Perhaps she has improved upon her takedown game and will be more aggressive with it. If that’s the case, my opinion of Bueno Silva’s game will improve.

But as of now, I want to highlight that Bueno Silva has largely been a submission grappling specialist while landing 0.35 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is not a great betting recipe.

Furthermore, while I consider Bueno Silva a semi-effective striker with some volume and some clinch ability, her defense isn’t strong there either. She’s landing 4.16 sig. strikes per minute while absorbing 4.71 per minute with a 57 percent defensive rate.

Her career-best striking performance came against Wu Yanan in 2022, which speaks to her general level of competition. Bueno Silva was also easily outstruck by Maryna Moroz in 2020, giving up 139 sig. strikes over 15 minutes.

So, although Pennington isn’t getting a ton of respect in this fight, which I’ll speak to in a second, I am very hesitant just to crown Bueno Silva the champion because she has a lot of holes in her game, especially on the defensive end.

Pennington, conversely, is a much more straightforward, technical, consistent fighter. She lands 4.02 sig. strikes per minute and absorbs 3.34 per minute, with a 62 percent defensive rate.

She has fought the best competition possible over the last 10 years, and she has always been considered one of the toughest fighters in this division. In that sense, I have no questions that Pennington can fight hard for 25 minutes, and that legitimately gives her a chance to beat Bueno Silva in my mind.

The downside is that Pennington isn’t explosive or dangerous in many areas. She’s not a knockout artist, and she’s not necessarily an elite athlete. She’s not a dominant wrestler. So a win for Pennington here likely still means a competitive scrap for five rounds, and that’s also the issue with backing her on the moneyline.

But Pennington should be able to compete with Bueno Silva’s volume. Pennington lands 0.93 takedowns per 15 minutes and has some potential to get on top of Bueno Silva, who has been taken down by seven different opponents.

Bueno Silva is probably more effective on a strike-by-strike basis and she may have the bigger moments here. Perhaps that leads to a random knockout. And maybe she’ll be more willing and able to shoot takedowns and get on top of Pennington, though I don’t consider that an easy feat.

Ultimately, Pennington is on the tail end of her career and I understand why the public is more excited about Bueno Silva. But Pennington’s consistency, defense, and general experience make her a live underdog.

On BetMGM, Bueno Silva is favored at -165, an implied win rate of 62.26 percent. I wouldn’t touch this personally, and I think the most likely path to Bueno Silva covering this line is in a finish. She’s +115 or better to win ITD around the industry but it’s still not a prop I’m very excited about.

Pennington at +140 likely presents a value, though I understand if you’re not excited by that one, given her potentially thin margin to win. Most likely, I think a win for Pennington comes by decision, in which case I wouldn’t mind her decision prop at +200.

Charles Jourdain vs. Sean Woodson

One of the preliminary fights I am most excited for features Canadian Charles Jourdain versus Sean Woodson.

Jourdain is an action fighter, and his ability to build momentum throughout a fight is one attribute that makes him special. He’s earned six victories inside the Octagon, which includes four inside the distance, and he’ll undoubtedly be looking to test the chin of Woodson on Saturday.

Jourdain currently lands 5.71 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.21 per minute with a 58 percent defensive rate. He’s not necessarily a major power threat, but it’s that volume and ability to up his pace as the fight progresses that makes him such a challenge.

Opponents need good cardio to match and durability to survive 15 minutes with Jourdain.

With that said, I believe Sean Woodson has a chance to make this fight very competitive if he shows up in form. Woodson is a boxing specialist, and he’s incredibly long for this division, which will challenge most opponents.

Woodson is 6-foot-2, and he’ll be five inches taller than Jourdain in this matchup, with a massive nine-inch reach advantage as well.

Though his primary skill set involves throwing hands, we’ve seen Woodson capable of chopping at legs from a distance, too, and he can throw knees when opponents try to close the distance. His volume has also been special, as he currently lands 5.41 sig. strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.0 per minute with a 57 percent defensive rate.

The biggest downside in Woodson’s game has been his grappling, in which he’s been taken down by five of his last seven opponents, and he was submitted late by Julian Erosa in 2020.

Woodson isn’t the type to knock you out with a single punch. He’s the type to unload boxing combinations and trouble his opponent at a distance for an extended period, eventually wearing them down.

This is what makes the matchup so fun. We have two fighters who can fight for 15 minutes, can both throw high volume and are willing to exchange. Woodson is the better boxer and the much longer fighter. Jourdain is arguably more diverse with his striking and likely more durable.

Jourdain has more submission grappling upside, but his wrestling is not good. He averages only 0.10 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends takedowns at 47 percent. It’s tough to project him for much success against Woodson, who is at least defending takedowns at 83 percent.

Before his most recent fight, I wouldn’t have considered Woodson to have any reliable offensive wrestling game. But he just landed four takedowns against Dennis Buzukja, so perhaps he will choose to test the ground game of Jourdain as well.

Woodson was dropped early by Luis Saldana two fights ago, and his durability is mildly concerning to me. I think Jourdain has legitimate knockout upside but it will still be a challenge for him to close distance.

And that’s also why I believe Woodson is a live underdog in this spot. Most likely, we will see this fight play out on the feet. That’s where Woodson is very comfortable, and we know he’s capable of keeping distance, and landing against an opponent like Jourdain who isn’t particularly defensively sound.

I wouldn’t at all be surprised if Woodson started hot and won the early exchanges. Jourdain is better at building momentum and I think he could potentially take over this fight, but at least Woodson is capable of fighting hard for 15 minutes, so it’s not a guarantee Jourdain has the upper hand late.

Arguably, the biggest advantage for Jourdain is that he’ll be fighting in front of a crowd that favors him, which may impact the judges. It’s simply one aspect of the fight to consider, though I don’t rely on it too much.

BetMGM has Jourdain favored at -200, an implied win rate of 66.67 percent. Woodson is the underdog at +165, or 37.74 percent.

Considering Woodson should get the fight he wants, I think he can pose problems for Jourdain at distance, and I think he’s likely the value side in this matchup because of it. Jourdain is very durable though, so I guess that even in a Woodson victory, we’ll likely see it go the distance.

I don’t mind taking a flier on that Woodson decision prop at +245 or better.

Jourdain feels more likely to have the bigger impactful moments, which I think could lead to a finish if he wins. I don’t hate the +175 ITD line if he’s your preferred side.

That’s all for this event! I hope you all have a great start to the year, and if you want to chat about any other matchups, feel free to leave a comment below!

(Top photo of Sean Strickland: Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images; Other photos: Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)