UFC 289 Nunes vs. Aldana picks: Bet on the champ to win inside

Nunes, Amanda - Aldana, Irene — Jun 10, 23:00

Amanda Nunes and Irene Aldana headline UFC 289 in Vancouver this Saturday.

The pre-fight narrative: The UFC returns to Canada for the first time since 2019 and Nunes will look to defend her bantamweight title north of the border. Aldana is coming off two straight victories and is fighting for her first UFC title.

UFC odds as of 4:31 p.m. ET on 06/07/2023.

UFC 289 Nunes vs. Aldana picks

Best Bet: Nunes to win via finish (-134)

Aldana took this fight on short notice when Julianna Pena bowed out of a would-be trilogy bout due to broken ribs in early May. This is a tremendous opportunity for the 35-year-old veteran but we can’t help to think she’s woefully overmatched.

Nunes is a hefty -315 favourite as of Wednesday afternoon and that number isn’t likely to shorten leading up to Saturday’s event. We’re confident the Lioness can get this done but aren’t willing to pay that price.

So we’ll back Nunes to win via finish at a much more palatable -134.

The Brazilian holds the UFC record for most women’s bantamweight wins (12) and eight of those have come via finish (also a record).

All in all, Nunes has 22 career victories with 17 ending via finish and 13 coming by knockout. She blends power with accuracy and volume, landing 4.40 significant strikes per minute at a 51.0% rate, per UFC.com.

Aldana’s method to victory in most fights is to win inside. She’s secured 11 of 14 career wins via knockout and throws a blistering 5.39 significant strikes per minute. The problem is she also absorbs 5.71 significant strikes per minute.

The Mexican is a certified brawler but that negative striking differential is going to be exposed by Nunes.

The champ has the fourth-best striking differential in women’s bantamweight history (+1.46) and isn’t susceptible to ground-and-pound, either.

Nunes’ 73.9% takedown defence ranks fifth all-time. Expect Aldana to take her best shot at Nunes but end on the wrong side of a finish.

Key stat: Only five of Nunes’ 17 UFC fights have gone the distance.