UFC 296 parlay picks: Bet on Irene Aldana to bounce back in Vegas

UFC 296 is a stacked card so there's lots to pick from for a three-leg parlay.

The pregame narrative: Irene Aldana takes a step down in competition and is a good bet to win while Shavkat Rakhmonov has an opportunity to keep his finish streak alive. Lastly, bet on fireworks in a heavyweight prelim fight.

UFC oddsas of 9:36 a.m. ET on 12/15/23.

UFC 296 parlay picks

Parlay: Aldana to win + Rakhmonov to win by finish + Buday/Giziev not to go the distance (+277)

Aldana to win(-205): Aldana (14-7-0) comes off a championship fight against the greatest female martial artist of all time, Amanda Nunes, where quite frankly, she got smoked.

But it's hard to take anything away from that bout as Nunes was head and shoulders above the bantamweight division. The only thing that could stop her was retirement.

Now the title is up for grabs and the Mexican native is in a good spot to rebound. In her last five, Aldana is 3-2 with all three wins being TKO's and the two losses coming to former champions.

Her opponent, Karol Rosa (17-5-0), has been fighting women who are battling to keep a roster spot.

Their one recent common opponent, Yana Santos, provided different challenges to each competitor. Aldana finished Santos in the first round and Rosa squeaked by a split decision.

MMA math isn't perfect but in this case, it's a tool that can be used to measure the strength differential between these two.

Aldana is one of the more powerful women in the division and Rosa is nowhere near the athletic or technical fighter that Nunes was.

Other parlay picks

Rakhmonov to win by finish (-175): It's hard to overthink this one because Rakhmonov is 17-0-0 with 17 finishes. He comes into this one with a huge advantage in many areas over his counterpart, Stephen Thompson (17-6-1).

Wonderboy is one of the best strikers in UFC history but he has been exposed against strong grapplers. He's also almost 41 years old and most of his athleticism is starting to fade.

Rakhmonov is an elite Sambo athlete who smothers his opponents with top pressure. Four of his six UFC wins are by submission.

The last two grappling-based guys Thompson has faced dominated him, taking him down a combined 10 times for 19:10 in control time.

The undefeated welterweight has the tools to control the fight and the instincts to extend his incredible finish streak.

Buday/Gaziev not to go the distance (-167): History has shown that heavyweights don't go to the final bell often. The division only goes to a decision 27.1% of the time, according to the Fight Matrix.

Shamil Gaziev (11-0-0) makes his UFC debut and he is as explosive as they come, with 10 finishes in 11 MMA fights.

His counterpart, Martin Buday (13-1-0), is the reason we see such good value. Buday has gone to a decision in three of his four bouts for the organization.

That said, Buday still absorbs 5.40 significant strikes per minute, according to UFC stats. That can be a recipe for disaster in this division.

If this fight starts to get into the later rounds, there is potential for each fighter to gas out and leave themselves vulnerable to damage.

Spencer Closs writes about sports betting for NorthStar Bets. The Star's parent company has a minority interest in NorthStar Bets.