UFC 290: Moreno vs Pantoja Picks and Predictions

Alexandre Pantoja is 2-0 against Brandon Moreno in his career but is listed as a +165 underdog for their UFC 290 bout this weekend. Read our UFC betting picks below to find out if he'll get the best of the Mexican once more.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Brandon Moreno vs. Alexandre Pantoja is the co-main event for UFC 290 betting on Saturday night.

Moreno will be putting his flyweight championship on the line in his sixth consecutive title fight while Pantoja has earned his first crack at 125-pound gold.

These flyweights clashed twice early in their careers with Pantoja taking both of those fights but oddsmakers are expecting Moreno to get the win here with UFC odds opening with the champ as a -190 favorite.

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Brandon "The Assassin Baby" Moreno first faced off against Pantoja in an exhibition bout at The Ultimate Fighter 24 in 2016. He lost that fight by submission and lost by unanimous decision when they faced off in an official bout two years later. Since then, Moreno has looked like a man possessed, going 7-1-2. 

Moreno's previous fight came back in January when he stopped Deiveson Figueiredo after three rounds to put their four-fight rivalry to rest. That allowed him to unify the flyweight title after he claimed the interim belt following a knockout against Kai Kara France last summer.

The 29-year-old is a well-rounded fighter that combines crisp boxing and body kicks with excellent grappling ability. He's also extremely durable with a deep gas tank and has shown the resiliency to fight back when he's behind on the cards. 

Alexandre "The Cannibal" Pantoja is the No. 2-ranked flyweight contender and has gone 9-3 in the octagon. After losing by decision to Askar Askarov in 2020, Pantoja has reeled off three straight wins. He's coming off back-to-back submission victories against Alex Perez and Brandon Royval which both earned Performance of the Night bonuses.

Like Moreno, Pantoja is a very well-rounded fighter that can excel wherever the fight goes. He has plenty of pop in his hands and is also an extremely dangerous grappler with high-end submission skills. 

Fight prediction: Alexandre Pantoja ML

The biggest advantage that I think Moreno has in this fight is his experience in five-round battles. Pantoja tends to be a fast starter and has never fought more than three rounds in his career.

That said, conditioning has never been an issue for Pantoja and even in his previous showdown with Moreno, he won the third round and took the decision with a pair of scorecards reading 30-26. 

While Moreno is a bit slicker with his boxing, Pantoja has more power and his transitions are a bit better on the mat. He also tends to throw more straight shots which should allow him to tag Moreno who tends to rely on looping punches. 

Perhaps most importantly, I think Pantoja's leg kicks could be an X-factor in this matchup. He loves to use low kicks and Moreno can be a bit heavy on that lead leg with his boxing stance. If he's able to attack that leg, Moreno's mobility and footwork are going to be compromised in the later rounds.

We saw that play a role in the Figueiredo fights as well and it could lead to a victory for the challenger here. 

Prediction: AlexandrePantoja moneyline (+165 at PointsBet)

Fight best bet: Alexandre Pantoja ML

I don't want to put too much stock into their previous two showdowns since the last one came back in 2018 and Moreno has made massive strides since then. However, one takeaway from those fights is that these guys are on the same level.

So, it's hard for me to consider Moreno at almost 2:1 odds when at best, he should be closer to -140 due mostly to his experience in championship fights.

The value lies with Pantoja in this one, especially with his ability to finish this fight inside the distance. Sure, Moreno has never been finished in his career but he has also taken a lot of damage recently (especially in those fights against Figueiredo) and he won't be able to rely on that chin to last forever. 

Pick: Alexandre Pantoja moneyline (+165 at PointsBet)