UFC 296 Fight Card: PPV Schedule, Odds and Predictions for Edwards vs. Covington
The UFC closes out its 2023 pay-per-view schedule with a championship double-header at UFC 296.
The night will end with Leon Edwards putting up his welterweight title against Colby Covington. After back-to-back wins against Kamaru Usman, Edwards has proven he's the man to beat at 170 pounds. However, Covington has been out of the picture for a while and will try to win the title in his first bout since March 2022.
Alexandre Pantoja will walk into the Octagon as a champion for the first time in the co-main event. He looks to register his first title defense since beating Brandon Moreno for the flyweight championship by split decision at UFC 290 in July.
He draws a rematch against Brandon Royval.
The card also features appearances from Shavkat Rakhmonov and Paddy Pimblett, giving fans plenty of reason to tune in.
Here's a look at the whole card along with the latest odds and a preview of the featured bouts.
- Shavkat Rakhmonov (-600) vs. Stephen Thompson (+440)
- Tony Ferguson (+250) vs. Paddy Pimblett (-310)
- Josh Emmett (+195) vs. Bryce Mitchell (-238)
- Dustin Jacoby (-270) vs. Alonzo Menifield (+220)
- Irene Aldana (-180) vs. Karol Rosa (+150)
- Cody Garbrandt (-192) vs. Brian Kelleher (+160)
- Ariane Lipski (+164) vs. Casey O'Neill (-198)
- Cody Durden (+160) vs. Tagir Ulanbekov (-192)
- Lucas Almeida (+140) vs. Andre Fili (-166)
- Martin Buday (-120) vs. Shamil Gaziev (+100)
Main Card (Pay-per-view, 10 p.m. ET)
Prelims (ESPN2/ESPN+, 8 p.m. ET)
Early Prelims (ESPN+, 6 p.m. ET)
The welterweight championship fight has just about everything you want to see in a big fight. Colby Covington has a way of irritating fans and opponents with his comments outside of the cage.
Be that as it may, what's even more frustrating for those that want to see Covington fail is that he seldom has in the cage. Going all the way back to 2015, the only man to beat him in the Octagon is Kamaru Usman. He did it twice to keep the title out of Covington's hands.
Now, Edwards will attempt to do that for a third time.
Rocky was able to pull off the massive upset of Usman the first time around with a head kick that shocked the champion in the final minute of the fifth round. However, Edwards confirmed it wasn't a fluke with a majority decision win over The Nigerian Nightmare in the rematch at UFC 286.
In that bout, Edwards was able to pop back up to his feet after being taken down. Usman scored a takedown in four of the five rounds, but only had more than two minutes of control time in the fifth and final round.
That defensive wrestling will come in handy for this one too. Covington has relied on his gas tank and relentless pressure, but is on a lengthy layoff and is now 35 years old. With all those factors working against him he could come up short again.
Prediction: Edwards via decision
The flyweight title has been difficult to hold onto since the days of Demetrious Johnson. Alexandre Pantoja will get his first opportunity to show he can hold onto it in the co-main event.
He draws Brandon Royval in his first title defense, looking to earn his second career win over the 31-year-old. The two first met at a Fight Night event in 2021 with Pantoja proving to be better on that night with a rear-naked choke.
The loss actually marked back-to-back defeats for Royval, he was knocked out by Brandon Moreno in his previous fight, but it also marked the beginning of Royal's run back up the ranks.
He rebounded with three consecutive wins over Rogerio Bontorin, Matt Schnell and Mathewus Nicolau to earn this opportunity to seize the belt.
The problem is that there isn't necessarily enough in Royval's three-fight win streak to believe that he's markedly better than he was when he lost to Pantoja the first time.
He's earned two first-round finishes, but Pantoja made it three rounds with Deiveson Figueiredo. He isn't going to get knocked out in the first round by Royval.
Pantoja is just a little more well-rounded and has the skills to take a decision.
Prediction: Pantoja via decision
This matchup just seems like a really cruel way to treat Stephen Thompson. The veteran has been with the organization for a long time and this feels like sending an old lamb to the slaughter by pairing him up with Shavkat Rakhmonov.
At his best, Thompson was a tricky karate practitioner whose herky-jerky movements and non-traditional style would give top tier fighters fits. It lead to a frustrating pair of fights with Tyron Woodley that nearly saw him capture UFC gold.
But he's 40 now and those quick counter-triggers don't quite fire like they used to. He's 4-5 across his last nine fights.
Meanwhile, Rakhmonov is a runaway freight train of a fighter. He's plowing through fighters in the welterweight division. He's 17-0 and he continues to step up in competition, earning submission wins over Geoff Neal and Neil Magny.
In Thompson's prime he might have been able to pick off Rakhmonov with a sniper-accurate head kick.
As it stands, Thompson could have a hard time managing the distance and Rakhmonov should have his way en route to a decisive TKO victory.
Prediction: Rakhmonov via third-round TKO
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