UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez
UFC 290 is finally here, bringing one of the most stacked cards in recent history. The unification of the featherweight titles is at the top, and a rematch five years in the making leads into it. Plus, there are many other phenomenal prospects and (more importantly) great betting spots on this card.
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UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez – Predictions & Best Bets
Volkanovski/Rodriguez – Over 3.5 Rounds (-150)
The last time Alexander Volkanovski didn’t go over 3.5 rounds was when he fought Chan Sung Jung in his third title defense. That fight continued into the fourth round and saw ‘Korean Zombie’ take a standing TKO. While it was a good stoppage, there is also a chance that the fight hits the over 3.5, with a less experienced judge. The bottom line is that Volkanovski is durable and smart defensively. He doesn’t put himself in bad positions all that often and only takes calculated risks.
Rodriguez is obviously on the other side of the equation, and those things are less true for him. However, he’s been over 3.5 rounds in two out of his last four main events (there was also a three-round decision in between those). So even though he’s known for his finished, he too goes late into fights.
Jauregui/Gomes – Fight Goes to Decision (-130)
When a prospect steps into the UFC, they usually come with an impressive finish rate. Both of these two women are no exception. Jauregui came into the UFC having finished 75% of her opponents. Gomes had made Contender Series with a 67% finish rate. These two numbers are undoubtedly propping up the price of this line.
However, since signing, they have combined to go to decision in 60% of their UFC/Contender Series bouts. There is only one finish loss between the two of them, and that Gomes in her professional debut nearly six years ago.
Robert Whittaker – To Win by Decision (+225)
I like Whittaker a lot in this featured middleweight fight this weekend. The problem is that the moneyline reflects that a lot of people agree with me. He opened just short of -400 and has been hovering above and below that line all week. Although there is value in and of itself on that line, I think there’s a much easier way to play it.
Despite being one of the best middleweights of all time, Robert Whittaker has never really been much of a finisher. In the last six years, he’s won every bout that he wasn’t fighting Israel Adesanya in. He’s also won all of those fights by decision. The last person he managed to finish was Jacare Souza, back at UFC on Fox 24 in 2017.
Jesus Santos Aguilar ML (-140) vs. Shannon Ross
Two things are working against Ross in this fight. The first is that he’s been finished on the feet in both of his last two fights. That’s obviously a big red flag in the betting world. While his opponent hasn’t been known as a knockout artist (he has 0 on record), he has knocked down opponents with big shots and then snagged a submission. In fact, that tends to be what leads to a lot of his submission victories.
The other thing working against Ross is the way he backs up. In his last few fights, he has ended up with his back against the cage far too much. Aguilar is aggressive and will be either pushing for that scenario or will get the clinch that he so badly wants.
Jalin Turner ML (-250) vs. Dan Hooker
This play is a bit chalky, but I do think there is a lot of value on it anyways. Turner is a terrible matchup for Dan Hooker in a number of ways. Hooker is a guy who has relied on his length a lot in striking battles, and for the first time, he’s going to be the much smaller fighter. I also think that Turner should have a substantial ground advantage should he decide to take the fight there.
Jack Della Maddelena – Wins by (T)KO in Round 2 (+550)
This UFC 290 card has a smattering of late replacement fighters. That usually leads to some crazy wide lines that aren’t really appealing. Jack Della Maddelena has one of those money lines right now. He’s listed at -950 against Josiah Harrell, who takes the fight on a bit over a week’s notice.
While I think he will easily beat Harrell due to size, speed, and overall skill, I do also think that Harrell is tough. He takes a punch well, and his wrestling may kill some time in that first round. I expect him to survive that first, and then we’ll see the effects of the bright lights and the short notice take over.
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