UFC 291: Chiesa vs Holland Picks and Predictions

While UFC odds have this as a relatively evenly-matched bout, our UFC 291 betting picks expect Kevin Holland to have all of the advantages he'll need to take care of business — read more below.

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Kevin Holland faces off against Michael Chiesa in a welterweight clash as a featured undercard attraction on the UFC 291 undercard this Saturday from the Delta Center in Salt Lake City.

Holland hopes to score his second win in a row and get back in the hunt for a welterweight title, whereas Chiesa looks to snap a two-fight skid after 19 months of inactivity.

UFC odds are favoring Holland’s explosive striking power to win out at -145 and Chiesa looking like a live dog at +125. Here's what I see going down for Holland vs. Chiesa at UFC 291 from Salt Lake City.

Chiesa vs Holland fight odds

Chiesa vs Holland method of victory odds

Chiesa vs Holland picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Chiesa vs Holland betting preview

Kevin Holland wasn’t in the best of spots getting stopped in back-to-back fights against Khamzat Chimaev and Stephen Thompson where he showed his excellent striking power and limited fighting IQ.

He got back on track three months ago, returning to form as he sparked out Santiago Ponzibibbio in the third round.

Holland has freakish reach for a welterweight at 81 inches and he's put it to good use with 14 knockouts. Though known for his striking, Holland is a BJJ black belt and has been trying to incorporate a ground game to mixed success over his last few fights. 

Former TUF winner Michael Chiesa hasn’t been in the octagon in 19 months, and that was after a lopsided loss to Sean Brady. Before that, Chiesa was submitted by Vicente Luque.  

“Maverick” does his best work on the ground — averaging 3.39 takedowns per fight — and has 11 submission wins. Considering Holland’s vulnerabilities to wrestlers in the past, Chiesa is being given a better chance than most to spring an upset.

Chiesa vs Holland tale of the tape

Chiesa vs Holland UFC prediction and best bet

Fight prediction: Kevin Holland ML

Holland’s struggles against wrestlers and grapplers do exist, but those struggles were against top grapplers and wrestlers at middleweight.

Since moving down, Holland has looked great. The real weakness he has is his terrible fight IQ, which was evident as he had Thompson dead to rights on the ground, but opted to let Thompson get up and the two resumed battling until he was stopped in the fourth. 

Chiesa is nowhere near as technical of a striker as Thompson and struggled to get his ground game going in his last two fights. For all of Chiesa’s prowess on the ground, he’s susceptible to submissions, making Holland a big threat on the mat.

Holland won’t have to contend with a tricky striker or a massive wrestler bringing him down. Chiesa is predictable with his striking and doesn’t have the size advantage that has beguiled Holland in the past, meaning that he’s going to need to find a way to bypass Holland’s abnormal reach and power to get him down. 

I don’t think Holland is as vulnerable to Chiesa as the odds indicate. Based on their recent form, Holland is back on the upswing whereas Chiesa might be on the way out. At -145, Holland is an excellent choice.

Prediction: Kevin Holland moneyline (-145 at DraftKings)

Fight best bet: Kevin Holland to win in Rounds 1 or 2

Holland’s bread and butter is striking, but he can be just as dangerous when looking for submissions. Chiesa’s takedown defense looked bad in his last few fights, and he doesn’t have the power to strike with Holland. I see advantages for Holland up top and on the mat should they go there.

This likely means Chiesa’s best chance lies in Holland making a stupid decision and pouncing on that limited opening. Can he do it after a 19-month layoff, and coming off two unflattering losses? While not impossible, it’s unlikely.

Chiesa is going to try and get Holland grounded. His conservative striking output is going to doom him, and if he keeps shooting for takedowns, Holland is going to blast him with a big shot or wrap him up in a guillotine choke. 

With a big advantage in striking, the ability to work on the ground, and being the more active fighter, Holland will hand Chiesa his third straight loss. I don’t expect Holland to need all three rounds to do it, so my best bet is Holland winning the fight in either of the first two rounds.

Pick: Kevin Holland to win in Rounds 1 or 2 (+130 at DraftKings)