UFC 291 predictions, odds, best bets: Dustin Poirier, Jan Blachwicz among top picks to consider

The BMF title returns to the Octagon on Saturday when Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje battle in the main event of UFC 291. The showdown is the first time the BMF title has been at stake since the title's inaugural bout between Jorge Masvidal and Nate Diaz at UFC 244 in November 2019.

Poirier and Gaethje have one previous meeting, with Poirier scoring a fourth-round TKO in their April 2018 bout. Both men have remained among the most exciting and talented fighters in the game, leading to the UFC resurrecting the ceremonial BMF title for the rematch.

With so many intriguing fights on the UFC 291 card, there will be plenty of action at sportsbooks around the country. As always, we are looking at each main card fight to identify the "best bet" for each bout. After a 2-2 result at UFC 290, our record for the year now stands at 20-18.

Let's take a look at what we've identified as our choices for the best bets on the UFC 291 pay-per-view main card.

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Michael Chiesa vs. Kevin Holland

Kevin Holland moneyline (-150)

There are a few factors at play here, but the biggest is Chiesa's inactivity. Chiesa has been out of action for nearly two years and Holland is a big challenge for a return. Chiesa is also someone who came up from lightweight to welterweight while Holland came down from middleweight. Size and inactivity are big factors here and Holland only being -150 feels juicy enough that it's an intriguing pick.

Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green

Tony Ferguson moneyline (+330)

There is a ton of wear and tear on the body of both of these men and both have suffered multiple stoppages in their most recent handful of fights. It's a bit wild to think that Green is a -400 favorite against Ferguson, a line that would have been unthinkable not that long ago. Ferguson has not looked great on his current five-fight losing skid. He's absolutely not the fighter he once was, but there also has to be some context given to a run of fights against Justin Gaethje, Charles Oliveira, Beneil Dariush, Michael Chandler and Nate Diaz. That's an absolute murderer's row of opponents. It's worth remembering that Ferguson looked good against Chandler for a round before he got front kicked in the face. He was doing well against Diaz before he just left his neck open going for a takedown. The tools are still there and anything at +330 is a risky play, but the line feels too wide. If you agree, you should try to exploit it against a guy like Green who is a level or two below the types of fighters Ferguson has been struggling with lately.

Stephen Thompsonvs.Michel Pereira

Fight to go the distance: Yes (-170)

Thompson has scored one stoppage -- a TKO over Kevin Holland in December -- since he finished Johny Hendricks in February 2016, an 11-fight stretch. Likewise, Pereira has one stoppage win since his May 2019 knockout of Danny Roberts, a stretch covering seven fights. In those same stretches, Thompson suffered one stoppage loss to Pereira's zero. It's hard to see the way their respective styles match up that either man is going to stop the other. Pereira could decide to work for takedowns, which could get him the win but not by stoppage. Or things could break down into a straight-up striking match, but either way, the chances of a stoppage feel very slim and -170 feels like a good number considering all of that. Even if Pereira's gas tank fails him once again, this is only a three-round fight, which won't leave Thompson much time to exploit it.

Jan Błachowiczvs.Alex Pereira

Jan Blachowicz moneyline (-115)

Pereira is one of the most dangerous strikers in UFC history. There's no taking away from Pereira that his run to a title fight and knockout of Israel Adesanya in just a handful of professional MMA fights is one of the more impressive accomplishments in the sport. But here's something that should stick out about that run as he moves up to 205 pounds: in seven UFC fights, the only man Bruno Silva ever took down was Pereira and in 15 UFC fights, the only man Adesanya ever took down was Pereira. Similarly, Andreas Michailidis, who took Pereira down twice, fought in the UFC four times and only had one takedown against anyone other than Pereira. Blachowicz is not big on using his takedowns but has been happy to use the tool when needed, such as when he took Adesanya down three times to secure their fight for the light heavyweight title. Blachowicz is also very tough and has only suffered one non-injury TKO loss in his career. I have to believe Blachowicz is going to be dialed in on neutralizing Pereira's striking with takedowns and being forced to grapple consistently for the first time in his career, against someone on Blachowicz's level, is a big ask for Pereira.

Dustin Poiriervs.Justin Gaethje

Dustin Poirier moneyline (-150)

There's almost no way this fight doesn't turn into a war and with two guys with the skills of Poirier and Gaethje, the potential exists for an explosive finish. Both fighters also have a lot of heart and toughness, so it could drag on into the later rounds. With that in mind, picking rounds or method of result feels too iffy here. Instead, we ride with the fighter who is slightly better everywhere except for maybe single-shot power. Poirier is crisp and slick with his striking in ways Gaethje's more blunt-force approach may struggle to match. Look for Poirier to work at a high rate and force Gaethje to try to keep up while likely slowly breaking Gaethje down after the first round and a half.