UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 odds, predictions, schedule: MMA expert reveals surprising fight card picks
UFC 291 arrives to great fanfare on Saturday. The UFC 291 fight card is set to take place at Delta Center in Salt Lake City, with a headline-grabbing main event between Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje. The two top-tier lightweight contenders will meet in a rematch of an epic 2018 battle and anticipation is brimming for the second clash. Both are aiming for another chance at the lightweight title, and considering recent form and the shared history of the fighters, the stage is set for a potential "fight of the year" battle in front of a massive audience.
Poirier is a -145 favorite (risk $145 to win $100), while Gaethje comes back at +125 (risk $100 to win $125) in the latest UFC 291 odds from Caesars Sportsbook. The co-main event pits former UFC light heavyweight champion and current No. 3-ranked contender Jan Blachowicz (-120) against former middleweight titleholder Alex Pereira (-110). Before finalizing any UFC 291: Porier vs. Gaethje II picks, make sure you .
Marley won the first-ever "ToutMaster" UFC betting contest sponsored by MMAOddsBreaker and appears regularly on multiple MMA betting and daily Fantasy shows. He watches every single fight for every professional MMA card and does extensive research before each event.
Over the past three-plus years, $100 bettors who have followed Marley's picks are up nearly $11,000. The accomplished MMA analyst has provided consistent winners for SportsLine members for the past four years. His accomplishments include hitting five consecutive main-event underdog winners in 2020 following the UFC's brief pause in action because of the pandemic. Anyone who has followed him is way up.
Now, with UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje in sight, Marley has studied the card from top to bottom and revealed his top picks and best bets. You can only see Marley's MMA picks at SportsLine.
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje preview
The main event between Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje is a must-watch for multiple reasons. First, the 2018 version was a classic, and both fighters have improved over the last five years, all while maintaining an ultra-entertaining and physical fight style. Both are ranked in the top three among lightweight contenders and the winner could be set up for a potential battle against UFC lightweight champion Islam Makhachev.
There is no title on the line, but UFC is resurrecting the ceremonial "BNF" title for the match for the first time since a 2019 bout between Nate Diaz and Jorge Masvidal. Both are high-level strikers with similar profiles since the last meeting. Both are 6-2 over the last eight matches with four finishes and two decision wins, and each lost to Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira by submission in UFC title fights. Poirier won the first matchup and is 29-7 overall with 10 wins in the last 12 fights.
That includes a submission win over Michael Chandler in November, and Poirier also has a pair of wins over Max Holloway and Conor McGregor. The 34-year-old is nicknamed "The Diamond," and Poirier is tied for the most KO/TKO wins in UFC lightweight division history.
On the other side, Gaethje is 24-4 overall, with 20 wins coming by stoppage. He knocked off Rafael Fiziev by majority decision in March and is known as "The Highlight" with the backdrop of his fighting style. He has earned a "performance of the night" bonus in each UFC fight, and Gaethje has the highest significant strike percentage (60.2%) in UFC lightweight history. See all of Marley's UFC 291 picks here.
Top UFC 291 predictions
One of Marley's top UFC 291 picks: He is going with Bobby Green (-400) to get the better of Tony Ferguson (+320) in a lightweight battle. Green is 29-14-1 in his MMA career, including 18 wins by stoppage, and has more significant strikes (1,500) than any lightweight division fighter ever.
He is also facing a fighter in Ferguson who has lost five straight fights, and Green remains unusually quick and agile for his age. Ferguson, nicknamed "El Cucuy," is 26-8 overall and a former UFC lightweight interim champion with 21 wins by stoppage. At one point, he had the longest winning streak in UFC lightweight history at 12 matches.
However, Marley sees Green as the better side. "At this point in their careers, Green should be the higher-volume striker and he can do it for a full 15 minutes," Marley told SportsLine. "I also trust his durability more." See who else to pick here.
How to make UFC 291 picks
Marley has strong picks for Poirier vs. Gaethje and every other bout on the UFC 291 card. He's also backing a fighter who "has improved a lot" to emerge with a dominant victory. See Marley's picks at SportsLine.
UFC 291 odds, fight card
Dustin Poirier (-150) vs. Justin Gaethje (+130)Alex Pereira (-115) vs. Jan Blachowicz (-105)Stephen Thompson (-150) vs. Michel Pereira (+130)Tony Ferguson (+320) vs. Bobby Green (-400)Michael Chiesa (+125) vs. Kevin Holland (-145)Gabriel Bonfim (-320) vs. Trevin Giles (+265)Derrick Lewis (+170) vs. Marcos Rogerio De Lima (-200)Roman Kopylov (-240) vs. Claudio Ribeiro (+195)Jake Matthews (-265) vs. Darius Flowers (+225)
C.J. Vergara (-160) vs. Vinicius Salvador (+130)
