UFC 292: Aljamain Sterling vs Sean O'Malley Picks and Predictions

Aljamain Sterling looks to continue his string of bantamweight title defenses against Sean O'Malley in the main event of UFC 292. Our betting picks like the champ to walk away victorious but are looking for a value play with the moneyline too short.

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Aljamain Sterling is facing off against Sean O'Malley in the headline event for UFC 292 betting on Saturday, August 19.

Sterling is making his fourth defense of his bantamweight title and is taking on a rising star in O'Malley. The champ is finally getting respect from oddsmakers with UFC odds opening with Sterling as a -250 favorite while O'Malley comes back at +210, just the second time in his career that he's been an underdog. 

Here are my best free UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley picks and predictions for August 19 from the TD Garden in Boston.

Aljamain Sterling vs Sean O'Malley fight odds

Aljamain Sterling vs Sean O'Malley method of victory odds

Aljamain Sterling vs Sean O'Malley picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Aljamain Sterling vs Sean O'Malley betting preview

Aljamain Sterling is coming off his UFC record third consecutive bantamweight title defense after beating Henry Cejudo by split decision in May. The "Funk Master" is now on a nine-fight winning streak but despite that success, Sterling continues to face criticism.

He was unable to completely exorcise the ghost of his controversial disqualification win against Petr Yan despite taking a split decision in the rematch. He also hasn't gotten much respect from fans for his victory against an already injured T.J. Dillashaw, and a close decision against Cejudo who hadn't fought in three years.

Sterling is a high-end grappler who was a former NCAA Division III All-American in wrestling. However, he has also improved as a striker and loves to switch stances while throwing kicks at a high volume. 

"Suga" Sean O'Malley is the No. 2-ranked bantamweight contender following a split decision victory against Petr Yan last October. O'Malley was seen as a future star as soon as he entered the UFC, but his hype train was derailed when he lost to Marlon Vera in 2020 after suffering a freak leg injury in the opening round. 

Suga has bounced back from that defeat with four-straight victories and while the quality of many of those opponents was lacking, he put those criticisms to rest by defeating the former champ in Yan.

O'Malley is a long and rangy bantamweight that uses a diverse striking arsenal to land 7.43 significant strikes per minute. The 28-year-old is a flashy kickboxer with knockout power and he has claimed a Performance of the Night bonus in seven of his last eight bouts.

Aljamain Sterling vs Sean O'Malley tale of the tape

Aljamain Sterling vs Sean O'Malley UFC prediction and best bet

Fight prediction: Sterling

O'Malley was able to beat Yan by picking him apart in the striking exchanges at range. However, while Yan has very good boxing based on footwork, pressure, and quick hands, he was also at a five-inch reach disadvantage and doesn't kick much.

Although Yan is a better pure striker than Sterling, Sterling has an almost identical reach to O'Malley and throws plenty of kicks, which means he's more likely to hold his own when striking at distance.

Once this fight gets into close quarters, Sterling should be able to implement his superior wrestling. Suga hasn't faced many strong grapplers and has often been fed opponents who have tried to stand and strike with him. However, when he faced the subpar Andre Soukhamthath, he was taken down four times and Yan had six takedowns while controlling him for more than five minutes.  

Sterling doesn't have the best takedown accuracy but he's relentless with his attempts. And when he does take his opponent to the mat, he does an excellent job of maintaining control. He's fresh off a bout where he outgrappled a gold medal Olympic wrestler and has racked up 11 takedowns and more than 19 minutes of control time over his last three fights. 

O'Malley also hasn't been in a fight longer than three rounds in his career while Sterling has gone the full 25 minutes in recent wins against Cejudo and Yan. Cardio hasn't been an issue for O'Malley but if finds himself constantly fighting off takedown attempts and carrying Sterling's weight, he could be gassed by the championship rounds. 

Prediction: Aljamain Sterling moneyline (-250 at bet365)

Fight best bet: Sterling by submission or decision

Although I like Sterling to win, the moneyline price is a bit too steep, especially when you consider his history of being undervalued by oddsmakers. That said, you can get his ML price down to -180 if you take his chances of getting a KO/TKO out of the equation.

Keep in mind that Sterling has zero knockdowns and just a single win by knockout in his last 16 fights. That TKO came against Dillashaw, who was practically fighting with one arm since he entered that fight having concealed a bum shoulder.

Sterling's best chance of victory lies in using his grappling to wear down O'Malley for five rounds or submit him once he gets the fight to the ground. 

Pick: Sterling by submission or points (-180 at FanDuel)