UFC Tips: Our four best bets for UFC 299 in a knockout 13/1 punch

news.paddypower.com

09 March 2024

*Times listed are all estimated GMT start time

UFC 299 sees several elder statesmen facing some of the organisations most in-form next-gen talent before O’Malley takes on Marlon Vera in his first defence of the Bantomweight title.

UFC 299
Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida, United States
TV: TNT Sports

Petr Yan’s form won’t fill you with a ton of confidence after losing 4 of his last 5 fights. But I’m still very bullish on the Russian. I wouldn’t say he’s on the decline. He lost 2 title fights, 1 by DQ when he was winning and the other by a Split Decision. Then lost another fight by Split Decision to the current Champion, Sean O’Malley. His most recent loss was against the unstoppable Merab Dvalishvili who could well be a future Bantamweight Champion.

I believe this opponent is a step down in class. Song Yadong does have a win over Marlon Vera in 2020. Other than that, he’s relatively unproven at the highest level.

Petr Yan, despite facing much tougher opposition, has the better striking and wrestling stats. Yan lands more strikes per minute (5.03 vs 4.38). The Russian has a higher striking accuracy (53% vs 42%). Yan also lands more takedowns per 15 minutes (1.71 vs 0. 63). In terms of wrestling defence, Yan is better at stopping his opponents’ takedown attempts (85% vs 73%).

Petr Yan fights tend to go the distance. I expect this one will too.

Petr Yan to win by Points.

7/5Petr Yan by PointsMethod of Victory

Another veteran vs prospect bout. The relatively unknown quantity BSD is actually a big favourite here. I think we’re getting good value on El Diamanté as a dog.

I won’t get into the striking stat comparisons again here. My calculation is very simple. Poirier has beat 6 UFC Champions – Conor McGregor, Max Holloway, Justin Gaethje, Eddie Alvarez and Anthony Petis. No one knows any of the guys BSD has beat.

The Diamond’s still got it. For me, it’s a great price. I’m picking Dustin Poirier to win.

13/8Dustin PoirierMatch Betting

I’m fading the OG Gilbert Burns in this one. He’s 37 now, he’s had some wars of late and it looks like his time at the top of the division is coming to an end.

I really like Jack Della Maddalena too. Anyone on a 16-fight win streak has to be taken seriously. He has an 82% takedown defence so he should be able to stop Burns’ takedowns and nullify the submission threat.

Jack has a really strong strikes landed to strikes absorbed ratio too. He lands 7.2 strikes per minute and absorbs just 4.8. For comparison, the Brazilian both lands and absorbs 3.3 strikes per minute. Jack Della Maddalena should be able to out-strike Burns here.

I’m picking Jack Della Maddalena to win.

8/13Jack Della MaddalenaMatch Betting

Marlon ‘Chito’ Vera already has a win over the Suga Show. It was a strange first round TKO. A Chito leg kick seemed to turn off O’Malley’s leg. Immediately after the strike he couldn’t put weight on it and soon after fell over, allowing Vera to get on top and get the stoppage.

I think O’Malley has developed a tonne since that fight 4 years ago. He’s gained experience against two of the best in the division in Aljamain Sterling and Yan and came out victorious on both occasions.

Suga Sean is the better striker. He lands twice as many strikes as he absorbs landing 7.2 strikes per minute and taking just 3.5. Chito is much easier to hit. He actually gets hit more than he dishes out. He absorbs 5.2 strikes per minute and lands 4.4 strikes.

I’m confident we’ll see Sean O’Malley retain his belt and avenge the loss.

Sean O’Malley to win.