UFC 292 Picks Today: Top DraftKings DFS Fantasy MMA Targets, Values for UFC 292

UFC 292 is taking place on Saturday from Boston, Massachusetts, and the main event is a highly-anticipated bantamweight title bout between Aljamain Sterling and Sean O’Malley. After consecutive wins over former bantamweight champions TJ Dillashaw and Henry Cejudo, Sterling has put himself in the conversation for the best bantamweight in UFC history, and a win over O’Malley would tie him for the most UFC title fight wins in the history of the division. Meanwhile, O’Malley is one of the UFC’s biggest stars in the lighter weight classes and is also one of the UFC’s biggest volume strikers.

The co-main event is a women’s strawweight title bout between Zhang Weili and Amanda Lemos. Rising Irish welterweight Ian Machado Garry is also on the main card against late-replacement Neil Magny after Garry’s original opponent, Geoff Neal, was forced to withdraw last week.

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Aljamain Sterling ($8,900)

Sterling enters this matchup with several advantages over Sean O’Malley. Sterling is a better wrestler, and by using his wrestling to fight inside, he can diminish O’Malley’s best strength, which is his distance striking. Sterling has attempted 62 total takedowns over his last four fights, an average of about 15 takedown attempts per fight. This was most notable during his most recent fight against Henry Cejudo, who is an Olympic gold medalist in wrestling. Sterling not only held his own wrestling against Cejudo, he recorded more takedowns in the fight, logging four takedowns compared to Cejudo’s three takedowns. If Sterling can take down Cejudo multiple times, he should have no issues taking down O’Malley.

O’Malley has also been susceptible to takedowns at times, which was on display in his most recent fight vs. Petr Yan. Yan recorded six takedowns on O’Malley and completed several takedowns along the fence. Sterling is in a good position to record takedown volume in this matchup.

Sterling has recorded the most control time in the history of the UFC bantamweight division and has recorded the third-most top position time. Sterling has excellent back control, which was primarily on display in his second fight vs. Petr Yan. Sterling’s back control gives him a weapon when opponents try to keep their back off the mat to avoid getting stuck in bottom position. O’Malley did this several times in his fight against Yan, and giving Sterling back exposure could result in Sterling riding O’Malley like a backpack. This would be appealing for generating control time to further fuel fantasy scoring in DraftKings DFS contests.

By using wrestling and close-distance fighting, Sterling can inhibit a lot of O’Malley’s excellent distance striking game, which would force O’Malley into a fight that is not best suited for him. This would also decrease the amount of striking volume O’Malley is able to land and potentially keep Sterling safer from return fire. Sterling has recorded more significant strikes than his opponent in eight of his last nine fights and has inhibited opponent significant strikes very well, absorbing just over two significant strikes per minute. Sterling’s strikes landed to absorbed ratio is also better than 2 to 1, which is comparable to O’Malley’s on a time-adjusted basis.

This fight is also five rounds, which potentially creates 10 extra minutes to generate fantasy scoring if the fight goes into the championship rounds, which has a good chance of happening. The over/under total rounds for this fight is 4.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Amanda Lemos ($7,000)

At roughly +250 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook, Lemos is one of the biggest underdogs on the slate, but she has a realistic chance to upset Zhang Weili if she can keep this fight at distance. Lemos has some of the most potent striking in her division, leading all women’s strawweights in total knockdowns and knockdowns per 15 minutes. Lemos’ striking is also fast and accurate, landing 57% of her significant strike attempts, which ranks third best in the division and ahead of Zhang’s 47% rate.

Lemos is coming off a TKO win over one of the division’s best strikers, Marina Rodriguez. To finish the fight, Lemos cracked Rodriguez with a powerful right hand to the temple and followed up with a standing combination to get the referee stoppage. Lemos is capable of doing a similar thing to Zhang if she can keep the fight at distance and land her potent striking.

Like the Sterling fight, this fight is also five rounds, which potentially creates 10 extra minutes to generate fantasy scoring.

Pedro Munhoz ($7,600)

Munhoz’s offensive striking output has been plus, landing over five significant strikes per minute. An issue for Munhoz has been he absorbs more than he lands, absorbing close to six significant strikes per minute. However, despite having a negative strikes landed to absorbed ratio, Munhoz’s striking metrics are a tick more appealing than Marlon Vera’s metrics. Vera has a worse striking differential than Munhoz and has also absorbed elevated strikes, absorbing over five significant strikes per minute. Munhoz’s striking defense is also better than Vera’s on a rate basis, avoiding 57% of opponent significant strike attempts, compared to 51% for Vera.

Vera is the more potent striker and has more power, so the matchup has risk for Munhoz, but it’s realistic Munhoz could out-point Vera in a decision win, which makes him a salary relief option.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.