UFC 292: Sterling vs. O’Malley Odds and Predictions

On Saturday, August 19, the UFC will be live on PPV from the TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts, for UFC 292: Sterling vs. O’Malley. The main event of the evening is a bantamweight title fight as Aljamain Sterling puts his title on the line against Sean O’Malley.

In total, there are 12 bouts currently scheduled for this PPV event. With that said, let’s examine the latest UFC 292 odds from the best UFC betting sites and make our predictions as to who will win.

UFC 292 Odds

UFC 292 betting odds are courtesy of BetUS.

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UFC 292 Predictions

If you’re making a UFC 292 parlay, we expect Aljamain Sterling, Ian Garry, and Andre Petroski to be top additions. This three-fight parlay could pay +180 or more. Look for updated odds at the best sports betting sites throughout the week.  

Sean O’Malley +220 vs Aljamain Sterling -260

Fans of Sean O’Malley may be surprised to see him as such a prominent underdog, but we’re unable to see how Sterling isn’t a bigger betting favorite. In O’Malley’s last win against Petr Yan, even O’Malley failed to see how he had won the fight and didn’t celebrate the win.

Yes, O’Malley has demonstrated knockout power. However, these recent finishes were questionable at best: UFC debutant Kris Moutinho (now released), Raulian Paiva (4-4), and Thomas Almeida, who was on the tail end of a four-fight losing streak and subsequently released by the UFC. These are not contender-level fighters and Sterling knows it.

Aljamain Sterling fought Sean O’Malleys BJJ coach Augusto Mendes back in 2017, Aljo outgrappled and outworked him

O’Malley is a currently a brown belt under Mendes pic.twitter.com/Rga6nbqERx

— schwick (@schwick6) August 11, 2023

Sterling’s wins prior to the belt include dominant performances over Cory Sandhagen, Pedro Munhoz and Jimmie Rivera. His recent showing against former two-division champion Henry Cejudo was one-sided in spite of the split-decision call.

Fans of O’Malley should be unafraid of the UFC 292 odds for Under 4.5 rounds bet at -180, because there is a very real chance that newly-awarded brown belt O’Malley finds himself out-grappled to the point of a ground-strikes finish.

Amanda Lemos +250 vs Weili Zhang -300

Five of Zhang Weili’s last six fights have been for the title, beating Joanna Jedzejczyk in her only non-title showing. She’s finished her opponent in three of her last six, 50% of her UFC fights overall.

Amanda Lemos’ UFC 292 odds are some of her highest paying since a loss to Jessica Andrade at +230. This fight is her biggest underdog status ever. Both women are fully capable of the finish early, and both have been knocked out.

The Under 3.5 rounds prop bet at -215 could be the right bet, but we think Zhang learned from past losses and will look conservative in the early rounds.

In the second fight with Rose Namajunas, just after the head-kick knockout in 2021, Weili prioritized wrestling, putting Namajunas down every single round and slowing the pace of the stand-up. This neutralized Rose’s striking advantage.

Weili could take Lemos into deep water, and if you need proof that Zhang has more power anyway, go back and watch her knockout of Andrade in 2019, a brutal first-round flurry and a 42-second win. Zhang is becoming more conservative with age, and we’ll see her put Lemos into bad positions before the finish.

Neil Magny +320 vs Ian Garry -420

This is Neil Magny’s fifth fight since June of last year, putting him on track to fight six times in 2022-2023. He’s 2-2 in his last four showings, with losses to Shavkat Rkhmonov and Gilbert Burns. Magny has become the gatekeeper at welterweight, and it is clear which side of title contention the oddsmakers think Ian Garry should be on.

Garry (12-0) is now 5-0 in the UFC with three finishes. His win over Daniel Rodriguez was 2:27 in the first round. Compare that to Magny’s win over Rodriguez back in November 2022, a third-round submission after a dominant show of wrestling.

Ian Garry vs Neil Magny confirmed for #UFC292pic.twitter.com/mg9mKbzwVk

— Spinnin Backfist (@SpinninBackfist) August 10, 2023

One concern for those who would play Garry’s UFC 292 odds as a parlay addition is his 63% takedown defense rating. Garry is open to the double leg and Song Kenan made a competitive three-rounder out of landing two takedowns and wearing Garry out.

Magny will use his wrestling early and often to test the cardio of Garry and see if he still has that knockout power at the highest levels.

Steer clear of the Over/Under in Garry’s first real test at welterweight. Bet the Magny moneyline if you think Garry’s wrestling isn’t up to par, but consider that Magny took this fight on ten days notice. Ian Garry is our second best moneyline bet of the card, with Sterling a narrow top bet.

Pedro Munhoz +165 vs Marlon Vera -190

Marlon Vera is a few months out from a brutal five-round battle with Cory Sandhagen where he was outworked 128 to 58 in significant strikes. This ended a four-fight winning streak that included Frankie Edgar and Rob Font.

Pedro Munhoz is on a much rockier track. The no-contest with O’Malley looked competitive, but he’s 2-4 in the UFC over his last six. Losing to Sterling, Edgar, Aldo and Dominick Cruz from 2019 to 2021. Munhoz regained some momentum with the win over Gutierrez, but that was a razor-close decision win.

We see an early finish for a few reasons, in spite of the UFC 292 odds showing the Over as a big favorite. Vera has never been finished, but he’s taken incredible damage in the last four fights, including 578 total significant strikes over the last two years. Munhoz has real power, but has also been finished twice in his career.

Both fighters have a high willingness to exchange in the pocket, and neither man has seen a decision with the strikes landed total is lower than 200.  Neither prioritize wrestling, so this will likely be a kickboxing match. It’s a perfect storm for a first UFC knockout loss for one athlete.

Former UFC Middleweight Champion Chris Weidman makes his return after a two-year UFC layoff. He’s 2-6 in his last eight showings, including losing the belt to Luke Rockhold in 2015. At 39 years old, his best wins are surely behind him, but he could return as a gatekeeper if his conditioning is right. His last loss was the brutal shin break, off a check from Uriah Hall, and he spent two years rehabbing his leg.

Brad Tavares is 2-4 in his last six, with only decision wins in 2021. He was knocked out by Bruno Silva last April, which makes this a rapid return to the octagon, just 120 days later.

Tavares is only two years younger than Weidman. He never reached the same level of competition, and we think the time off could have done wonders for Weidman’s chin. Clearly, Weidman fought too soon, too often. This talented athlete should see a successful return and a decision or submission win.

Denis Tiuliulin +285 vs Gregory Rodrigues -360

At 4-3 in the UFC, Gregory ‘Robocop’ Rodrigues hopes to bounce back from a TKO loss against  UFC, Denis Tiuliulin who is 1-2 in the UFC. Tuiluilin is also a knockout artist, and both his UFC losses are by submission.

So, with both men showing knockouts and knockout losses, the UFC 292 odds have picked the Under 1.5 rounds as the favorite. We think they’ve made a critical misstep. Rodrigues will turn into a wrestler if he thinks you’re dangerous and Tiuliulin can’t wrestle. We think he’ll spend the first few rounds on the mat with Tiuliulin struggling to find his feet.

Surely, Tiuliulin’s submission defense will have improved after two submission losses. We see a late finish for Rodrigues, but think the Over is a better bet than the moneyline.

Kurt Holobaugh +145 vs Austin Hubbard -170

Austin Hubbard has won every other UFC showing, putting him on track for a win. His 2021 loss to Vinc Pichel took him back to the drawing board, leaving the UFC to win at XMMA and Caged Aggression in 2022 showings.

Welcoming Hubbard back is Kurt Holobaugh, who is now 0-5 in the UFC. Holobaugh hasn’t had it easy, with losses to Burgos, Barcelos and Thiago Moises. Still, it doesn’t look like he’s on the same level as the top UFC lightweights.

Hubbard was never knocked down or knocked out in the UFC. If this becomes a battle of conditioning and pace, he’ll find an easy win over Holobaugh. Bet the Over prop if you’re a fan of the Kurt Holobaugh comeback.

Gerald Meerschaert +210 vs Andre Petroski -250

Undefeated in the UFC, Andre Petroski (9-2) has finished three fighters since 2021. Gerald Meerschaert is inconsistent, but never backs down from a challenge. When he beat Makhmud Muraodv in 2021, no one saw that coming. He’s now 1-2 in his last three showings and four years older than his 32-year-old opponent.

Petroski is better in nearly every category. His striking and grappling are superior on paper, but Petroski has also never fought Khamzat Chimaev, Kevin Holland, Thiago Santos, or many of the other high-quality athletes that Meerschaert has lost to.

The biggest underdog on tonight’s UFC card starts the show with a W ��

Andre Petroski (+300 ML) adds the first L to Nick Maximov’s record

— Pickswise (@Pickswise) May 14, 2022

This is a better fight than the odds make it, but Petroski is still a worthy value bet, with a payout that closely reflects his abilities.

Andrea Lee +285 vs Natalie Silva -350

After losing five of her last seven, Andrea Lee ends up with yet another tough test. Natalie Silva is 3-0 in the UFC and on one of the strongest runs of her career. She’s coming off a three-minute knockout win.

Lee is tough to finish and hasn’t been stopped in the UFC. Silva will need to go the distance. Her only UFC decision win is over Jasmine Jasudavicius, another incredible UFC flyweight. It’s clear Silva has the tools to take the win.

Karine Silva -162 vs Maryna Moroz +142

Undefeated in the UFC, Karine Silva is coming off a first-round submission of Ketlen Souza, her third in the UFC. She’s pitted against fellow groundwork specialist Maryna Moroz.

Moroz has never been submitted, but she has given up takedowns in fights against Angela Hill and Carla Esparza. Her 47% takedown defense puts Silva in the top position. We could see another D’Arce choke finish for Silva, given her methodology for standing up when downed.

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