UFC 294: Usman vs Chimaev Fight Prediction, Odds & Picks

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18 October 2023

UFC 294: Usman vs Chimaev Fight Prediction, Odds & Picks

Betting News is covering UFC 294 throughout the week leading up to Saturday’s pay-per-view spectacle. The co-main event is a fight fans won’t want to miss as Kamaru Usman and Khamzat Chimaev go head-to-head in a middleweight title eliminator.

This exciting fight is taking place on short notice. Chimaev was originally supposed to take on Paulo Costa until the latter withdrew due to surgery. Usman, the No. 1 welterweight at the moment, then stepped up to fill in as Costa’s replacement, leaving time to tell who’ll wind up challenging Sean Strickland in the near future.

This article has everything you need to know ahead of the UFC 294 co-main event, including the latest Usman vs. Chimaev odds, a fight prediction, and the best bets to make this weekend.

UFC 294: Usman vs Chimaev Odds

Moneyline

Kamaru Usman (+245)
Khamzat Chimaev (-285)

Will the Fight Go the Distance?

Round Total

Over 2.5 Rounds (+130)
Under 2.5 Rounds (-160)

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Now, back to Saturday’s co-main event…

Usman vs Chimaev Tale of the Tape

Kamaru Usman — Khamzat Chimaev

Record: 20-3 — 12-0
Height: 6’0” — 6’2”
Reach: 76” — 75”
Weight: 170 lbs — 185 lbs
Age: 36 — 29
Fighting Stance: Switch — Orthodox
Knockouts: 9 — 6

UFC 294: Usman vs Chimaev Fight Preview

With Usman taking this fight on short notice, it isn’t a surprise to see that he’s the clear-cut underdog at UFC 294. BetOnline lists Chimaev at -285 on the moneyline to win this weekend, holding an implied win probability of 74.0%.

Chimaev has taken the MMA world by storm, fighting to a 12-0 record to begin his career. He’s ended his bouts early more often than not, finishing 11 of his dozen opponents.

Chimaev’s well-rounded game makes him a challenge for any opponent. He can end fights in just about any way and quickly, too. Four of his last five fights ended in Round 1, including when he most recently submitted Kevin Holland at UFC 279.

All eyes are also on Usman to see if he can become the first fighter to hand Chimaev a loss.

The former UFC Welterweight Champion is currently stuck in a rut. He heads into UFC 294 following back-to-back losses for the first time in his career, having lost to Leon Edwards twice — once by knockout and a second time via majority decision.

Usman also doesn’t have any experience as a middleweight, whereas Chimaev is 4-0 in his career in that weight class.

“The Nigerian Nightmare” is also at a disadvantage when it comes to a variety of statistics. Chimaev has the edge when it comes to significant strikes per minute (7.30 vs. 4.46) and striking accuracy (59% vs. 52%), as well as takedowns (3.98 vs. 2.96) and submissions (3.5 vs. 0.1) per 15 minutes.

UFC 294: Usman vs Chimaev Betting Trends and Markets

For those looking to bet on more than the moneyline, BetOnline boasts a variety of Usman vs. Chimaev betting markets that further shed light on how the UFC 294 co-main event might unfold.

The first thing I noticed is that the sportsbook is favoring that this fight won’t go the distance (-180). It makes sense given that Chimaev has a 91.7% finish rate while four of Usman’s last seven fights ended with some sort of finish.

Taking that into account, it isn’t surprising to see Chimaev preferred to win via KO/TKO at +195 odds. He’s picked up six of his 12 career victories by knockout and now faces Usman, who was last KO’d by Edwards in August 2022.

If there’s an upset, Usman is most likely to win by points at +450 odds. He’s currently 10-1 when his fights go the distance and considering how Chimaev has never been finished, winning a decision is likely the underdog’s best path to an upset.

If you’re looking for when a finish is most likely to occur, BetOnline lists Chimaev winning via first-round KO/TKO as the most probable outcome (+425). After all, all but one of his six career knockout victories took place in the opening frame.

UFC 294: Usman vs Chimaev Prediction Best Bet

Chimaev has been making a name for himself and I don’t expect his momentum to end just yet. Usman is a great competitor, but he’s also seven years older than the favorite and hasn’t had a ton of time to prepare for this fight.

Chimaev’s superior grappling will help him break Usman down, leading to an eventual knockout win (+185). On top of the favorite being the superior striker, I don’t trust Usman’s durability considering that he was knocked out just two fights ago.