Kamaru Usman vs. Khamzat Chimaev Odds, Tips & Predictions
In another reshuffled fight that MMA fans are eagerly anticipating, former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman and 170lbs contender Khamzat Chimaev both step up to middleweight for the co-main event at UFC 294 in Abu Dhabi.
According to UFC CEO Dana White this week, the winner of this fight will earn a title shot against current middleweight champion Sean Strickland some time in 2024 - not that either of these two needed any added motivation on Saturday night.
Just like Alexander Volkanovski in the UFC 294 main event, Usman took this fight at short notice, replacing Chimaev's original opponent Paulo Costa, who was ruled out of action due to complications with elbow surgery.
Having beaten both belt holders at 170lbs and 185lbs, "The Nigerian Nightmare" has aspirations of double champ status before walking off into the sunset, but "The Boogeyman" will certainly have something to say about those plans this weekend.
Chimaev hasn't fought for over a year since his catchweight submission win over Kevin Holland at UFC 279, with that whole card remembered most for its sudden reshuffle following "The Wolf"'s inability to make 170lbs for his original main event fight with Nate Diaz.
Kamaru Usman vs Khamzat Chimaev Tips
Although Usman is older now and injuries are said to have somewhat lessened his impact at 36, if he's able to keep things on the feet then this fight becomes a coin toss unlike the favouritism implied in the outright odds.
He'll no doubt have to weather an early onslaught from Chimaev, who usually comes flying out of the traps and immediately looks to shoot a takedown or grapple with his opponent.
But just like Gilbert Burns managed, survive that initial bum rush with good takedown defence which we know Usman has - 97.1% to be exact - and suddenly things become a lot more interesting.
This pair both have good basic boxing, have solid slight head movement, adequate boxing defence and crisp punching. Unless major mistakes are made, we feel Usman will have the upper hand and can keep things ticking over for three rounds through a higher striking output.
Taking this fight at short notice will benefit the underdog more given how he's always in shape, is used to fighting five rounds and has to make 185lbs instead of shaving off an additional 15lbs on top of his usual weight cut to make welterweight.
That's why we're favouring the seasoned former champion to have his hand raised in this exciting co-main event, with a number of firms going 5/2 for him to win.
Kamaru Usman To Win By Decision
For something at a larger price, we're doubling down on Kamaru Usman winning the fight and are specifying that he'll be victorious through a decision on the judges' scorecards.
As dominant as Chimaev has been since entering the UFC six fights ago back in 2020, this last-minute change in opponent requires him to completely alter his game plan.
Costa was a better matchup for him stylistically, whereas now that he's facing Usman his best chances of winning are to stay within boxing range, establish his jab, and consider a takedown once he has the upper hand in the stand up exchanges.
That isn't Chimaev's forte, so when you consider that he's going up against an extremely handy wrestler who is used to contesting five rounds instead of three, it won't be an easy day at the office for either of these two.
We're chalking up Usman's experience as giving him a narrow edge in Abu Dhabi, with The Nigerian Nightmare able to thwart Chimaev's eagerness to go to the ground and being the more active of the two on the feet, which will earn him a shot at middleweight gold next year.
