UFC 297: Pennington vs Silva Odds, Picks & Predictions

Raquel Pennington is listed as the underdog opposite Mayra Bueno Silva at UFC 297 in Toronto, but she's in a solid position to overcome those odds due to her dependable defense and difficulty to put down. Our betting picks look to find value on her.

A vacant bantamweight title is on the line when Raquel Pennington faces Mayra Bueno Silva in the co-main event of UFC 297 this Saturday, January 20, at the Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

Now that the age of Amanda Nunes is over, one of these capable battlers will carry the title into a new era for women’s MMA.

UFC odds have Silva as a -170 favorite, and established contender Pennington is a +140 underdog. 

Here are my free picks for Pennington vs. Silva at UFC 297.

Raquel Pennington vs Mayra Bueno Silva fight odds

Pennington vs Silva picks

Fight prediction: Pennington ML

After years of lingering around the top of the bantamweight division, Raquel Pennington is getting a deserved shot at the title. She is six years removed from her failed challenge against Nunes and has gone 6-2 since, and while she isn’t the most exciting fighter in the division, she gets the job done.

Silva has emerged as the favorite in the fight because of her aggression and submission skills. She seems raw at times, but when she finds an opening, she makes it count big. Though she is a wrecking ball in the octagon, Pennington’s conservative style and her experience should play a big part in this fight.

Pennington is a patient operator who doesn't overcommit, and Silva can look stuck in the mud when she isn't successfully pressuring her opponents. She is also the better defender, has a great chin, and can quell Silva’s charges with her clinches and infighting. It could be a close fight, but I like Pennington to score an upset.

Prediction: Raquel Pennington moneyline (+140 at Bet99)

Fight best bet: Over 4.5 rounds

Pennington hasn’t scored a finish since 2015, and she’s going to play her typical defensive game to avoid getting in a precarious position with Silva. Silva takes her time to find an opening, but she is such a great finisher that she’ll normally get it. That said, we don’t know how she’ll do in a five-round fight against a defensively sound veteran like Pennington.   

In her overturned victory against Holly Holm, Silva made the most of a narrow opening and choked her out in the second round after looking lost as Holm crowded her. Pennington is notoriously difficult to finish, having only two defeats via finish in her career against Nunes and a 2012 submission loss to Cat Zingano. Those are two future Hall-of-Fame fighters in the prime of their careers when she faced them.

I don’t think Silva will finish Pennington, and Pennington isn’t going to divert from her game plan and fight against her strengths. Though this may not be an exhilarating fight, it will be a tactical one, so the fight going over 4.5 rounds looks like the best bet to make.

Pick: Over 4.5 rounds (-120 at Bet99)

Pennington vs Silva betting preview

Pennington turned pro back in 2012, and she’s been a reliable veteran who has only come up short against the best during her long career. She is a careful fighter who lands 4.02 significant strikes per minute and a solid defender who negates her opponent’s offense with solid clinching and infighting.

Silva looks to bring the offense and is known for her finishing skills. The Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist isn’t shy from getting in a fight, willing to take one to land one with 4.16 significant strikes per minute, and has eight finishes in ten wins. Though she is often on the hunt for submission, she struggles in wresting back control of a fight if her opponent can successfully slow her down.

Expect Pennington to make the most of her experience by trying to crowd Silva against the walls of the octagon, and never allowing her to get the full extension of shots with clinches.

Silva cannot allow Pennington to lull her into a sense of security with her perceived lack of activity, and must actively pressure the veteran and make the most of every scoring opportunity she can in the first five-round bout of her career.

Raquel Pennington vs Mayra Bueno Silva tale of the tape

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