UFC 299 predictions, odds: O'Malley vs Vera 2 picks

The UFC returns in pay-per-view fashion for what is expected to be the best card of the year to date. Some of the sport's biggest names will be on display during the main card in Miami, which should give spectators a spectacular show with highly competitive bouts from top to bottom.

The main event sees bantamweight champion Sean O'Malley look to successfully defend his title for the first time against the fifth-ranked challenger, Marlon Vera. Meanwhile, Dustin Poirier takes on Benoit Saint-Denis, who is looking to quickly rise up the ranks in the Lightweight Division.

The storylines write themselves in the main event. O'Malley — who won the bantamweight belt by beating Aljamain Sterling at UFC 292 — faces the first title defense of his young career against the only man to beat him to date. The American holds a 17-1 record in his professional career with the only loss coming via submission to Vera at UFC 252 in 2020.

Luckily for the champ, he's greatly improved in every aspect in the four years since his lone loss, as evidenced by the belt he currently dons.

O'Malley's draw is his explosive power. This has resulted in 12 [technical] knockouts throughout his career, including four in his last six fights since losing to Vera. What has the challenger been up to since beating the now-champ at UFC 252? The Ecuadorian has compiled a 5-2 record with the two losses coming via decisions at the hands of Jose Aldo and Cory Sandhagen.

In addition to Vera's experience beating O'Malley previously, one unique statistic has caught the eyes of some bettors in the build-up to this event. The 31-year-old has never been knocked out or submitted in his 32 professional fights; each of his eight losses has gone to decision. This could pose an issue for the American, who has yet to compete in a five-round bout that reaches the championship rounds. 

O'Malley can get a leg up on Vera in the early rounds, though, as the challenger has traditionally started slowly in his career. As long as the champ can rack up some points early and go the distance, he should be able to successfully defend his title. For all of these reasons, my favorite play at UFC 299 is O'Malley to win by decision at even money (+100).

Let's take a look at the line-up for the evening, as well as the odds for each fight on the Main Card, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:

UFC 299 Main Card

Time/TV: Main card starts at 9 p.m. CT (ESPN+ PPV)

Location: Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida

Main Card (Projected winners in Italics):Petr Yan (-125) vs. Song Yadong (+105); Gilbert Burns (+140) vs. Jack Della Maddalena (-166); Kevin Holland (-130) vs. Michael Page (+110)

Co-Main Event: Dustin Poirier (+170) vs. Benoit Saint-Denis (-205)

Main Event:Sean O'Malley (-270) vs. Marlon Vera (+220)