UFC 299 Best Bets

West Ham United FC

07 March 2024

UFC 299 is taking place on Saturday from Miami, Florida, and the card is one of the most stacked events in recent memory. The main event is a bantamweight title fight between Sean O’Malley and Marlon “Chito” Vera. The co-main event is a lightweight contenders bout between former interim champion Dustin Poirier and rising lightweight Benoit Saint Denis. The card also features the UFC debut of Michael “Venom” Page in a welterweight bout against Kevin Holland, along with exciting fights such as Petr Yan vs. Song Yadong, Gilbert Burns vs. Jack Della Maddalena, and Curtis Blaydes vs. Jailton Almeida.

At UFC 298 last month, a DraftKings Sportsbook bettor had a big win, turning $100 into over $6,000 with a UFC Parlay Bet. The bettor placed a $100 Parlay Bet on DraftKings Sportsbook featuring the following UFC picks at +6115 odds:

Merab Dvalishvili Moneyline
Miranda Maverick Moneyline
Ian Garry Moneyline
Robert Whittaker Moneyline
Danny Barlow Moneyline
Anthony Hernandez Moneyline
Oban Elliott Moneyline
Rinya Nakamura vs. Carlos Vera Over 1.5 Rounds
Zhang Mingyang vs. Brendson Ribeiro Under 1.5 Rounds
Ilia Topuria +5.5 Point Spread
Marcos Rogério de Lima Moneyline

As a result of all of these outcomes hitting in the Parlay Bet, the bettor took home $6,115.79.

DraftKings is hosting a huge fantasy UFC 299 tournament that pays out $700,000 in total prizes, including $200,000 to first place. Enter the contest for only $25 here.

Sean O’Malley vs Marlon “Chito” Vera 2

“Chito” Vera beat Sean O’Malley in their first matchup in 2020, but an injury to O’Malley’s leg during the fight clouded the final result. O’Malley does not consider his loss to Vera to be a true loss due to his injury.

O’Malley is an excellent distance striker, and his striking metrics are among the best in the UFC. Offensively, O’Malley is one of the biggest volume strikers in the UFC, landing over seven significant strikes per minute, seventh-most among all active UFC fighters. O’Malley is one of the most accurate strikers in the UFC, landing 61% of his significant strike attempts, third-best among all active UFC fighters. O’Malley’s defense is also solid, avoiding 61% of opponent significant strike attempts. These factors have contributed to an elite striking differential. O’Malley has landed about four more significant strikes per minute than he has absorbed, third-best among all active UFC fighters.

Visually, O’Malley is excellent at hiding his strikes behind feints to create openings, and he is comfortable switching stances, fighting from both southpaw and orthodox looks, which gives him different attack angles. O’Malley can fight both on the lead and on the counter, and his distance management, footwork and ringcraft are excellent. This was best on display in his title fight win over Aljamain Sterling, where O’Malley landed a beautiful slide-back right straight as Sterling was pressing forward to floor Sterling and earn a KO/TKO stoppage.

O’Malley’s striking metrics are better than Vera’s metrics, including significant strikes landed per minute (7 to 4), significant strike accuracy (61% to 50%), strikes absorbed per minute (3.5 to 5), and striking defense (61% to 51%). Most notably, O’Malley’s striking differential is substantially better, landing over twice the amount of strikes he has absorbed. Meanwhile, Vera has absorbed more strikes than he has landed, which is a major red flag in his striking metrics.

Despite absorbing more strikes than he has landed, Vera has strengths. Vera is extremely tough and has a great chin, and his durability combined with his pop gives him a chance to win the fight at any moment, even if he’s behind on the scorecards. Vera’s kicks are dangerous, which was best on display with his brutal knockouts of Frankie Edgar and Dominick Cruz. Vera also appeared to damage O’Malley’s injured leg during their first fight with low kicks, which accelerated the stoppage.

Vera has never been finished in his MMA career, with all eight of his career losses coming by decision. O’Malley’s superior striking combined with Vera’s toughness could create an avenue for O’Malley to win this fight either by decision (+120) or in the later rounds, and taking O’Malley to win in over 2.5 rounds in a Same Game Parlay (SGP) is a way to get more favorable odds on O’Malley.

Another option to create a plus money bet is to pair O’Malley in a Parlay Bet with Benoit Saint Denis. Dustin Poirier is coming off a brutal head-kick KO loss to Justin Gaethje, which is alarming considering his age. Fighters coming off brutal KO losses, especially in their mid-30s, can frequently never return to their prior form. This was on display most recently with Alexander Volkanovski and Kamaru Usman, two fighters in their mid-30s who suffered head-kick KO losses and have not looked the same since returning.

Main Event Same Game Parlay (SGP):

Sean O’Malley Moneyline (3 Way)
Over 2.5 Total Rounds

Parlay Bet:

Benoit Saint Denis Moneyline (vs. Dustin Poirier)
Sean O’Malley Moneyline (vs. Marlon Vera)

Benoit Saint Denis ($8,900) has displayed excellent fantasy scoring due to a blend of volume striking and volume grappling. Saint Denis is averaging nearly five takedowns per 15 minutes, a huge number, and has landed nearly six significant strikes per minute, also a strong rate. As a result, Saint Denis is averaging 109 DraftKings fantasy points (DKFP) per fight, second-best on the slate. Saint Denis has scored over 100 DraftKings fantasy points in each of his last five fights. Saint Denis could be in line for another strong fantasy scoring performance in his matchup against Dustin Poirier, especially with the 35-year-old Poirier coming off a knockout loss.

UFC 299: O'Malley vs Vera 2, live from Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida. Prelims start at 8pm ET/5pm PT, while the main card kicks off live on PPV at 10pm ET/7pm PT.