UFC 299 Picks Today: Top DraftKings DFS Fantasy MMA Targets, Values for UFC 299
UFC 299 is taking place on Saturday from Miami, Florida, and the card is stacked from top to bottom. The main event is a bantamweight title fight between Sean O’Malley and Marlon “Chito” Vera. The co-main event is a lightweight contenders bout between former interim champion Dustin Poirier and rising lightweight Benoit Saint Denis. Other notable fights on the card include the UFC debut of Michael “Venom” Page in a welterweight bout against Kevin Holland, along with Petr Yan vs. Song Yadong, Gilbert Burns vs. Jack Della Maddalena, and Curtis Blaydes vs. Jailton Almeida.
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Benoit Saint Denis ($8,900)
Saint Denis has displayed excellent fantasy scoring due to a blend of volume striking and volume grappling. Saint Denis is averaging nearly five takedowns per 15 minutes, a huge number, and has landed nearly six significant strikes per minute, also a strong rate. As a result, Saint Denis is averaging 109 DraftKings fantasy points (DKFP) per fight, second-best on the slate. Saint Denis has scored over 100 DKFP in each of his last five fights.
Saint Denis’ opponent, Dustin Poirier, is coming off a brutal head-kick KO loss, which is concerning considering Poirier’s age. Fighters coming off brutal KO losses, especially in their mid-30s, can frequently never return to their prior form. This was on display most recently with Alexander Volkanovski and Kamaru Usman, two fighters in their mid-30s that suffered head-kick KO losses and have not looked the same since. Saint Denis has KO power and knocked out Matt Frevola with a head kick in his most recent win. It’s possible Saint Denis finishes Poirier in this fight, and even if he doesn’t, Saint Denis has fantasy scoring upside due to his high-volume style.
Sean O’Malley ($9,200)
O’Malley is one of the biggest volume strikers in the UFC, landing over seven significant strikes per minute, seventh-most among all active UFC fighters. O’Malley’s striking differential is also elite, landing about four more significant strikes per minute than he has absorbed, the third-best striking differential among all active UFC fighters.
O’Malley is in a five-round title fight against Marlon “Chito” Vera, who is incredibly tough. Vera has never been finished in his pro MMA career, with all eight of his career losses coming by decision. Vera’s toughness combined with O’Malley’s striking pace could create a lot of striking volume for O’Malley over a prolonged fight, especially if this fight goes the full 25 minutes. O’Malley is expected to win this fight, which is reflected in his odds on DraftKings Sportsbook—O’Malley is close to a -300 favorite on the moneyline.
Curtis Blaydes ($8,200)
Blaydes is one of the better wrestlers in the heavyweight division, and it shows in his grappling metrics. Blaydes is averaging about six takedowns per 15 minutes, a massive rate, and has only been taken down once in his last 15 UFC fights dating back to 2017.
Blaydes is facing Jailton Almeida, who has won most of his fights by using a blast double to get the fight to the ground where he can use his strong jiu-jitsu and work from top position. This has worked well against Almeida’s previous opponents, who lacked the defensive wrestling to stop Almeida’s takedown attempts. However, Almeida could struggle to execute this strategy against Blaydes, as Blaydes is the better wrestler and should be able to stuff Almeida’s basic takedown attempts.
If Blaydes can stop Almeida from taking him down, he will negate Almeida’s biggest strength, which is his jiu-jitsu from top position. Almeida has only landed nine significant strikes from distance in seven UFC fights. Blaydes has a good chance to position himself to win this fight by stopping Almeida’s takedown attempts and forcing Almeida into a striking match.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
