UFC Contender Series Odds: Connor Matthews vs. Jair Farias prediction

Contender Series Week 10: Ramon Tavares vs. Cortavious Romious keeps it moving with a fight in the featherweight division between Connor Matthews and Jair Farias. Matthews is a former Contender Series alumni who failed to get the win on the last season but was awarded a second chance meanwhile, Farias is an undefeated prospect who's won all 10 of his professional bouts and is coming off a first-round knockout in his last fight. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Matthews-Farias prediction and pick.

Connor Matthews (6-1) didn't have the best outing in his first stint on the Contender Series which saw him get beat in every facet of the fight against Francis Marshall who's now a part of the UFC's featherweight roster. Since that loss, Matthews came back 10 months later and impressed Dana White, Din Thomas, and Matt Serra on Dana White Looking For A Fight at Combat Zone 79 where he submitted his opponent in under four minutes into the first round. Matthews will be looking to make the most of his second chance on the Contender Series when he takes on Brazil's Jair Farias.

Jair Farias (10-0) is an undefeated prospect fighting out of the Fighting Nerds fight camp that has already brought four fighters into the UFC with three of them coming from this season of the Contender Series. Much like his training partners, Farias is a very technical and powerful striker who utilizes his long-range weapons to stay out on the outside countering his opponents as they attempt to come within range. Against a grappler like Matthews, Farias will need to use that striking to keep him at bay as he comes into the biggest fight of his career on this week's episode of the Contender Series.

Here are the Contender Series UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

UFC Contender Series Odds: Connor Matthews-Jair Farias Odds

Connor Matthews: +144

Jair Farias: -186

How to Watch Connor Matthews vs. Jair Farias

TV: ESPN+

Stream: ESPN+

Time: 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT

*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why Connor MatthewsWill Win

Connor Matthews's first chance to fight on the Contender Series was last season when he fought current UFC featherweight Francis Marshall who ultimately won by unanimous decision. Matthews looked to get that win back and he did in a big way when he defeated Andrew Cruz in the first round by submission in the last episode of Dana White Looking For A Fight at Combat Zone 79. That win gave him another chance on the Contender Series as he looks to finally get his UFC contract on the season finale this week.

He gets to take on yet another Fighting Nerd fighter Jair Farias who fights eerily similar to his training partners. He's a long and rangy Muay Thai striker but he has been susceptible to takedowns in past fights. If Farias' takedown defense has not gotten even during his four years away from the sport then he is going to have a hard time against Connor Matthews. While Matthews may not be an elite D1 wrestler, he is still very good with offensive grappling and if he gets Farias' back he can finish from there and dominate the position for the entire round. As long as he is able to drag this fight to the mat he can score the upset and the coveted UFC contract.

Why Jair Farias Will Win

Jair Farias is a talented Brazilian featherweight prospect who is currently undefeated winning all 10 of his professional bouts with nine of them coming inside the distance. He trains out of the surging Fighting Nerds camp which has already produced five UFC fighters with all five coming through the Contender Series and four of them coming from this season alone. Farias is your prototypical Fighting Nerd fighter where they have that long rangy Muay Thai style of striking with great counters, great cardio, and power.

He gets to take on Connor Matthews who will be making his second appearance on the Contender Series. Like Farias' training partner Caio Borralho, Matthews will attempt to get signed on his second attempt. Matthews looks to be a bit outgunned on the feet at kicking range but Matthews has the ability to change levels and get the fight to the mat to neutralize the striking of Farias. We've seen Farias keep his hands very low almost sometimes at his hip which has him get countered at times but it also helps with his takedown defense being able to change levels a lot faster to dig for the underhooks. As long as this fight stays standing Farias should be the one to be landing the more damaging shots eventually putting Matthews away midway through this fight.

Final Connor Matthews-Jair FariasPrediction & Pick

While Connor Matthews has looked to have improved striking from his Francis Marshall fight, this fight still has a feeling of a striker vs. grappler matchup. Matthews' best chance of getting his contract will be by taking Farias down where he can't use his long limbs to land damage on him. Neutralizing Farias is something Matthews can and will have to do if he wants to be successful in this fight. As for Farias, he will need to keep this fight at his range and keep Matthews at the end of his strikes and counter as he comes within range. The way that Matthews let Marshall land 46% of his head strikes, 101 of 221 leads me to believe if this fight stays on the feet for a prolonged period of time it could be a quick night for Matthews. Ultimately, Matthews is going to have an extremely tough time finding his range against Farias and he will not succeed in taking down the much larger opponent that's when Farias will be able to take over and punish Matthews eventually knocking him as the Fighting Nerds sweep the Contender Series going 5-0.

Final Connor Matthews-Jair Farias Prediction & Pick: Jair Farias (-186)