UFC Fight Night 226: Gane vs. Spivac odds, picks and predictions

In a 5-round heavyweight bout in the main event, Ciryl Gane and Serghei Spivac meet at UFC Fight Night 226 — also known as UFC on ESPN+ 84 and UFC Paris — at Accor Arena in Paris on Saturday. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 226: Gane vs. Spivac odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

Records: Gane (11-2-0) | Spivac (16-3-0)

The prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ at 12:30 p.m. ET, while the main card starts at 3 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

Gane is looking to bounce back after losing to Jon “Bones” Jones in a 1st-round submission at UFC 285 in March. The loss marked his 2nd straight failed attempt to reclaim the title, as the Frenchman went the distance in a unanimous-decision loss to Francis Ngannou at UFC 270 in Jan. 2022. That was the only time in his last 4 fights that he’s needed the judges, and he earned a 3rd-round TO/TKO victory over Tai Tuivasa in between the title-shot defeats. “Bon Gamin” is 8-2 since joining the UFC with his only 2 losses coming in the title fights.

Spivac takes the walk with 3 consecutive stoppage wins in tow. He submitted Derrick Lewis in the 1st-round of a fight night main event last time out on Feb. 4, and he recorded a pair of KO/TKO wins over Augusto Sakai (2nd round) and Greg Hardy (1st round) in 2022. He has gone the distance just once in his previous 6 battles in the octagon.

Gane holds a 3-inch reach advantage, and he also has a slight 5.08-to-3.79 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Spivac is slightly more accurate with the strikes, landing 63.78% to 61.93% for Gane. Spivac’s biggest advantage is in the takedown game, posting a 5.05 TD Average, while also posting a 65.85% takedown accuracy percentage and 0.56 submission average.

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UFC Fight Night 226: Gane vs. Spivac odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:28 a.m. ET.

UFC Fight Night 226: Gane vs. Spivac picks and predictions

Gane (-190) had tons of trouble against Jones and Ngannou on the ground, and that certainly doesn’t bode well for him against SPIVAC (+160). The Moldovan fighter and moderate underdog is worth playing, despite the location of the fight favoring Gane.

Spivac holds a tremendous advantage in the ground game, and Gane just won’t be keen to get to the canvas. If the challenger does take it there, this one could be over quickly.

No (-550): Will the fight go the distance? will cost you 5 1/2 times your potential return and that’s an awful play — even though this one is unlikely to include the judges for a decision.

I like METHOD OF VICTORY 7-WAY: SPIVAC BY SUBMISSION (+400) for a chance to multiply your wager by 4 times, and UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-165) is also a sound play.