UFC Fight Night 226: Saint-Denis vs. Moises odds, picks & predictions

In a 3-round lightweight bout on the main card, Benoit Saint-Denis and Thiago Moises meet at UFC Fight Night 226 — also known as UFC on ESPN+ 84 and UFC Paris — at Accor Arena in Paris on Saturday. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 226: Saint-Denis vs. Moises odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

Records: Saint-Denis (11-1-0) | Moises (17-6-0)

The prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ at 12:30 p.m. ET, while the main card starts at 3 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

Saint-Denis will have the home crowd behind him, but he more going for him than just noise from the fans. The southpaw has a 2.5-inch reach advantage and a 4.11-to-2.47 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. He also lands 62.70% of those strikes, compared to just 45.34% for his counterpart.

After losing his UFC debut, Saint-Denis, a.k.a. “God of War”, has rattled off 3 straight victories, all via stoppage. That includes a 1st-round victory via submission against Ismael Bonfim last time out on July 1.

If Moises has an advantage, it’s in the ground game, where he had a 41.38% takedown accuracy percentage and a 1.28 submission average. Moises has won his past 2 fights via submission, including a 2nd-round win over Melquizael Costa last time out at UFC 283 in late January.

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UFC Fight Night 226: Saint-Denis vs. Moises odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:47 a.m. ET.

UFC Fight Night 226: Saint-Denis vs. Moises picks and predictions

SAINT-DENIS (-165) is a rather moderate favorite, but he is a strong play in front of his fellow French citizens. They’ll be a full throat spurring him on.

BSD rolls in with 3 straight victories, and he has gotten the job done at 1:32 of the 2nd Round or earlier in each win.

Moises will be trying desperately to get Saint-Denis to the mat, but the Frenchman is also pretty strong on the canvas. That mitigates the only slight advantage Moises might have.

NO (-175): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a little bit pricey, but this fight is likely to end before the judges are forced to get involved.

Since going the distance in his UFC debut, Saint-Denis has 3 consecutive finishes; Moises has 4 straight stoppages since his last decision back on Feb. 27, 2021.