UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida odds, predictions: MMA expert makes surprising fight card picks
Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Jailton Almeida will have something to prove on Saturday when they meet in the UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida main event. The five-round battle of heavyweight contenders will anchor the main UFC fight card starting at 3 p.m. ET from the Spectrum Center in Charlotte. The No. 9-ranked Rozenstruik is out to prove he is still a legitimate contender following losses in two of his past three and the perception that he could be headed toward the role of top-t0 gatekeeper. He faces a tough test in the No. 12-ranked Almeida, who needs to show he can defeat upper-level competition after starting his UFC stint with four wins against lower-tier opponents.
Almeida is a -550 favorite (risk $550 to win $100), while Rozenstruik comes back at +400 in the latest UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida odds from Caesars Sportsbook. The co-main event features light heavyweight sluggers as veteran Anthony Smith (-110) meets surging prospect Johnny Walker. Before locking in any UFC Fight Night picks, make sure you see the MMA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine expert Daniel Vithlani.
Vithlani is a highly-analytical UFC bettor who profited more than $6,200 for $100 bettors in 2022. This includes a documented 24-14 record on his well-respected, two-leg parlays. Every pick was documented on his public Instagram account.
From breaking down film and following fighters and their camps closely, to tracking sharp action and betting market signals, Vithlani covers the breadth of the MMA betting landscape top to bottom. He also trains amateur boxers and speaks regularly with MMA fighters to understand the sport's nuances.
In his SportsLine debut for UFC 283 in January, Vithlani swept the main card and his selections included advising SportsLine members to back Jamahal Hill (-125) against Glover Teixeira (+105) for the vacant light heavyweight title in the main event. Anyone who has followed him has seen massive returns.
Now, with UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida approaching, Vithlani has scoured the UFC fight card top to bottom for value and released his top MMA picks. Vithlani's UFC Fight Night picks are only available at SportsLine.
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida preview
In a heavyweight division that has seen numerous prospects emerge in recent years, Almeida (18-20 stands out because of his unusual arsenal. He is a rare heavyweight who excels at and prefers the ground game. The 31-year-old Brazilian has seen 11 of his career victories come by submission along with seven knockouts. He cites countryman Anderson Silva, the fleet-footed grappler who controlled the middleweight division for nearly a decade, as his MMA hero and role model.
Among heavyweights of recent note, Frank Mir and Alistair Overeem stand out as heavyweights with world-class ground games and high submission rates. Both challenged for the UFC title but never won the belt.
Almeida earned a roster spot by appearing on the recruiting program "Dana White's Contender Series" and winning his matchup in September 2021. He went on to win three fights in the next 12 months, with one knockout and two submissions. He's now 4-0 in the UFC with back-to-back performance bonuses but has yet to face a top-15 ranked opponent.
He'll be tested Saturday by Rozenstruik (13-4), who has seen his stock and ranking drop because of losses in three of his past five fights, but remains an intriguing talent.
The 35-year-old Surinamese fighter made his UFC debut in February 2019 and won his first four fights with the promotion by knockout. But faced with a step-up in competition, he was knocked out by former champion Francis Ngannou in 20 seconds in his next fight.
Rozenstruik is one-dimensional offensively, but it's with a style fans enjoy because 12 of his 13 professional MMA victories are by knockout, with one decision. However, he also has struggled against opponents who have varied skill sets, including Curtis Blaydes and Alexander Volkov, who both defeated him convincingly.
Even so, just when it appeared he might be on the brink of dropping from the top 15 of the UFC rankings, Rozenstruik delivered a knockout of prospect Chris Daukaus in 23 seconds last December. You can only see who to pick at UFC Fight Night here.
UFC Fight Night predictions
We'll share one of Vithlani's top UFC Fight Night selections here: He is siding with Alex Morono (-220) to get the nod over Tim Means (+180) in a battle of welterweight veterans to kick off the main card.
Morono (22-8-1) is a seven-year UFC veteran who is known for his versatility, endurance and toughness. The 32-year-old Texan saw a four-fight winning streak come to a halt in his last outing when he was stopped by rugged striker Santiago Ponzinibbio in December.
Means (32-14-1) is a nine-year UFC veteran and straight-forward slugger who is noted for action-packed fights. The 39-year-old Oklahoma native is looking to snap a two-fight skid that includes a split-decision loss to Max Griffin last October.
"Morono throws a ton of volume and pieces together fluid boxing combinations. When he's moving forward, he looks dangerous and can put his opponents under a ton of pressure. Means is tough and can fight through adversity, but Morono should have too much for him," Vithlani told SportsLine. See who else to back here.
How to make UFC Fight Night picks
Vithlani also has strong picks for Rozenstruik vs. Almeida and other bouts on the UFC Fight Night card. He's backing a fighter who "is the better technical boxer and grappler" to emerge with a dominant victory. Vithlani's picks and MMA analysis are only available at SportsLine.
UFC Fight Night odds, fight card
Jailton Almeida (-550) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+400)Anthony Smith (-110) vs. Johnny Walker (-110)Daniel Rodriguez (+250) vs. Ian Garry (-320)Tim Means (+180) Vs. Alex Morono (-220):Matt Brown (+175) Vs. Court Mcgee (-210)Karl Williams (-430) Vs. Chase Sherman (+330)Cody Stamman (-160) Vs. Douglas Silva de Andrade (+135)Carlos Ulberg (-390) Vs. Ihor Poteria (+310)Natan Levy (-270) Vs. Pete Rodriguez (+220)Ji-Yeon Kim (-200) Vs. Mandy Bohm (+170)
Bryan Battle (+120) Vs. Gabe Green (-140)
