UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes odds, predictions, time: MMA expert unveils surprising fight card picks
Ranked heavyweight contenders will collide on Saturday in the main event of UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes when No. 4-ranked Curtis Blaydes meets No. 3-ranked Sergei Pavlovich. Their five-round battle tops the main UFC fight card (7 p.m. ET) from the promotion's Apex facility in Las Vegas. This is perhaps the most intriguing non-title showdown that could be made in the heavyweight division and the winner will likely emerge as a top candidate for a title shot. The fighters have eight combined consecutive stoppage wins between them. Pavlovich has five of those following a loss in his UFC debut, while Blaydes has three consecutive victories against upper-tier competition.
Blaydes is a -165 favorite (risk $165 to win $100), while Pavlovich is a +140 underdog in the latest UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes odds from Caesars Sportsbook. In the co-main event, light heavyweight contenders take the spotlight as Brad Tavares (-175) meets Bruno Silva (+150). Before locking in any picks of your own for UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes, make sure you see the MMA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine UFC expert Daniel Vithlani.
Vithlani is a highly analytical UFC bettor who profited more than $6,200 for $100 bettors in 2022. This includes a documented 24-14 record on his well-respected, two-leg parlays. Every pick was documented on his public Instagram account.
From breaking down film and following fighters and their camps closely, to tracking sharp action and betting market signals, Vithlani covers the breadth of the MMA betting landscape top to bottom. He also trains amateur boxers and speaks regularly with MMA fighters to understand the sport's nuances.
In his SportsLine debut at UFC 283 in January, Vithlani swept the main card and his 5-0 record included telling SportsLine members to back Jamahal Hill (-125) against Glover Teixeira (+105) for the vacant light heavyweight title in the main event. Anyone who has followed him has seen massive returns.
Now, with UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes in sight, Vithlani has scoured the card top to bottom for value and released his top MMA picks. Vithlani's UFC Fight Night picks are only available at SportsLine.
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes preview
The winner of Saturday's main event could be headed towards a title shot sooner than later. In March, Jon Jones returned from a three-year layoff to win the heavyweight title with a first-round submission of Ciryl Gane. He was widely expected to make his first defense against former champion Stipe Miocic in July, but that matchup already could be in jeopardy.
UFC president Dana White told the media last week that Jones has faded from communication with the promotion, jeopardizing the potential fight with Miocic. If the fight is somehow made, either Blaydes or Pavlovich would be a logical choice as the next contender. But if Jones vs. Miocic falls through, it's likely the UFC would create an interim title and the winner of Saturday's main event could be a shoo-in as one of the participants.
Blaydes (17-3-1) is a seven-year UFC veteran who has gone 12-3-1 in 15 appearances with the promotion and spent most of his time in or near the top five of the UFC rankings. The 32-year-old Illinois native has never reached a title shot largely because of his struggles against former champion Francis Ngannou, who has since left the promotion. Two of his three UFC losses came to Ngannou and the other came in a title-eliminator against veteran Derrick Lewis.
Blaydes is widely considered one of the best wrestlers to ever compete in the heavyweight division, though he has a competent stand-up game and strong athleticism as well. His last outing ended in a first-round stoppage of Tom Aspinall, who suffered a knee injury in the first round of their main-event showdown.
Pavlovich (17-1) lost his UFC debut by stoppage to former title challenger Alistair Overeem in November 2018, but has defeated all five of his subsequent opponents by first-round knockout. The 30-year-old Russian power puncher started to gain attention when stepped up in competition. His last outing resulted in a 54-second knockout in December of Tai Tuivasa, who was arguably the division's hottest prospect and ranked No. 3 at the time. You can only see who to pick at UFC Fight Night here.
UFC Fight Night predictions
We'll share one of Vithlani's top UFC Fight Night selections here: He is backing Karol Rosa (-105) to get the nod against Norma Dumont (-115) in a women's bantamweight matchup.
Rosa (16-4) is a versatile talent who has won five of her first six UFC outings. The Brazilian split two outings in 2022 and is coming off a decision victory against veteran Lina Lansberg in October.
Dumont (8-2) is a grappling specialist who has struggled with weight misses throughout her career, but still managed a 4-2 record in six fights with the UFC. She won a decision against Danyelle Wolf last September.
"Rosa has looked a bit more dangerous, and a bit more impressive thus far in her UFC tenure. I see this fight being very close, with Rosa having more of the big moments to edge out a decision win," Vithlani told SportsLine. See who else to back here.
How to make UFC Fight Night picks
Vithlani also has strong picks for Pavlovich vs. Blaydes and other bouts on the UFC Fight Night card. He's also backing a fighter who "will use his edge in UFC experience" to emerge with a dominant victory. Vithlani's picks and MMA analysis are only available at SportsLine.
UFC Fight Night odds, fight card
See full UFC Fight Night picks, predictions, and best bets hereCurtis Blaydes (-165) vs. Sergei Pavlovich (+140)Brad Tavares (-175) vs. Bruno Silva (+150)Bobby Green (-260) vs. Jared Gordon (+210)Iasmin Lucindo (-305) vs. Brogan Walker (+240)Jeremiah Wells (-120) vs. Matthew Semelsberger (+100)Ricky Glenn (-180) vs. Christos Giagos (+155)Montel Jackson (-600) vs. Rani Yahya (+440)Norma Dumont (-120) vs. Karol Rosa (+100)Batgerel Danaa (-150) vs. Brady Hiestand (+120)
Karine Silva (-180) vs. Priscila Cachoeira (+155)
