UFC Fight Night: Jonathan Martinez vs Adrian Yanez Odds, Picks & Predictions

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12 October 2023

UFC Fight Night: Jonathan Martinez vs Adrian Yanez Odds, Picks & Predictions

In a battle of Texas-trained bantamweights, Jonathan Martinez is taking on Adrian Yanez in Sin City as a slight -125 betting favorite. We break down the bout and give our best bet in our UFC betting preview below.

Jonathan Martinez vs. Adrian Yanez is a bantamweight bout featured on this weekend’s UFC Fight Night undercard from The Apex in Las Vegas.

This Texas-sized showdown pits Plainview’s Martinez against Houston’s Yanez in a match that will thin the herd at bantamweight — and it should get messy.

UFC odds have this fight a close one with Martinez favored at -115 and Yanez coming back as a -105 underdog.

Here are my free betting picks for Martinez vs. Yanez at UFC Fight Night from Las Vegas.

Jonathan Martinez vs Adrian Yanez fight odds

Jonathan Martinez vs Adrian Yanez method of victory odds

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Jonathan Martinez vs Adrian Yanez picks

Fight prediction: Jonathan Martinez ML

Yanez absorbed the kind of beating from Rob Font in his last fight that would merit a soft touch upon his return to competition.

Instead, he’s doing the exact opposite in taking on a very good and very strong opponent in Martinez. Not only is Martinez a good striker, but he also can take his opponents to the ground and has looked great in recent performances.

Martinez is coming off a win in a war against Said Nurmagomedov last May. He won the striking battle by landing the bigger shots and managed to fend off Nurmagomedov’s grappling to secure a tight decision win. The southpaw has won his last five fights and is looking like a contender.

The same could be said about Yanez before Font’s brutal walkover. His considerable stopping power failed to make an appearance against his veteran opponent, who took advantage of his willingness to bang.

That’s not to say that he can’t win here — especially as Martinez has been stopped in the past — but he's going to have a hard time with Martinez unless he can chop him down early.

Maybe Yanez can turn it around, but Martinez would still be a hard fight for him even if he wasn’t coming off a loss. I’m going with Martinez to overcome Yanez in a cracking fight.

Prediction: Jonathan Martinez moneyline (-154 at DraftKings)

Fight best bet: Jonathan Martinez to win by decision

Martinez’s heavy shots find their target more often than not. He doesn’t have that touch of sleep, but his blunt power is good enough to make opponents reconsider their approach. For someone like Yanez who likes to come forward with a lot of strikes, he’s going to either leave himself open for a counter shot or invite Martinez to trade.

Martinez managing to overcome a disastrous first round against Nurmagomedov to rally and win says a lot about his resiliency. He showed his resourcefulness and grit, banging Nurmagomedov out and even showing his ground chops along the way.

Yanez is a flashy fighter, but we’ve seen a lot from Martinez in his recent performances to be confident he’ll weather the storm and turn Yanez away.

In what should be a fantastic battle of attrition, Martinez gets the win on the scorecards.

Pick: Jonathan Martinez to win by decision (+275 at DraftKings)

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Jonathan Martinez vs Adrian Yanez betting preview

Martinez is the No. 13-ranked bantamweight and is 8-3 since joining the UFC in 2018. In addition to Nurmagomedov, Martinez has wins over Liu Pingyuan and Cub Swanson.

His last defeat before his recent five-fight win streak came against former Yanez opponent Davey Grant, who knocked Martinez out two fights before taking Yanez the distance.

Yanez suffered a shock defeat to Font at UFC 287 in a fight that many expected would be his coming out party. With a background in boxing and a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Yanez is a swarmer who defends well against takedowns. Since joining the UFC in 2020, four of his five wins have come by knockout.

Southpaw Martinez needs to rely on his heavier, accurate shots along with his occasion grappling to slow down Yanez. While Yanez lands 6.75 significant strikes per minute, his style leaves him open to counters, as he absorbs 5.89 strikes in return. Both fighters have only been stopped once in their MMA careers, and both have over a 50% finishing rate.