UFC Nashville: Sandhagen vs Font Fight Prediction, Odds & Picks

bettingnews.com

02 August 2023

UFC Nashville is quickly approaching as some of the best MMA fighters on the planet are set to take over Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, TN. After looking at the full card, it’s time to examine the massive catchweight (140 lbs) main event between former interim UFC Bantamweight Championship challenger Cory Sandhagen and 12-year veteran Rob Font.

Sandhagen was originally supposed to take on Umar Nurmagomedov before the latter suffered a shoulder injury. It was then announced on July 20 that Font would be taking Nurmagomedov’s place on short notice, giving him about two weeks to prepare for the upcoming headlining bout.

Betting News has put together a Sandhagen vs. Font preview, ranging from each fighter’s history to the latest betting odds (via BetOnline) and best bets for the UFC Nashville main event.

Sandhagen vs Font Tale of the Tape

Cory Sandhagen — Rob Font

Record: 16-4 — 20-6
Height: 5’11” — 5’8”
Reach: 70” — 71”
Weight: 135lbs — 135lbs
Age: 31 — 36
Fighting Stance: Switch — Orthodox
Knockouts: 7 — 9

UFC Nashville: Sandhagen vs Font Odds (as of Wednesday, August 2 at 9:37 a.m.)

Moneyline

Cory Sandhagen -350
Rob Font +285

Will the Fight Go the Distance?

Round Total

Over 4.5 Rounds (-125)
Under 4.5 Rounds (-105)

Sandhagen vs Font Fight Preview

With this fight happening at the last minute, it isn’t shocking to see Sandhagen as the clear-cut favorite. BetOnline lists him at -350 odds to win the UFC Nashville main event, which carries an implied win probability of 77.8%.

Sandhagen hasn’t been a stranger to success in the UFC, going 9-3 since joining the company. He began to garner a lot more attention when he notched back-to-back knockout wins over Marlon Moraes and Frankie Edgar in a four-month span, earning ‘performance of the night’ honors for both wins.

Things looked shaky in 2021, though. After a split-decision loss to T.J. Dillashaw, Sandhagen failed to defeat Petr Yan for the interim bantamweight title at UFC 267.

Still, the Aurora, CO native didn’t let those losses keep him down. Sandhagen kept chugging along like a break-less train, knocking out Song Yadong before, most recently, beating Marlon Vera (via split decision) back in March.

While Sandhagen has some momentum on his side, Font isn’t exactly a slouch in the cage. The 36-year-old veteran fighter has won five of his last seven fights and owns an overall UFC record of 10-5 since 2014.

Font has also beaten some fairly well-known names over the years, like Cody Garbrandt and Ricky Simon, even knocking out Marlon Moraes just a few years ago.

And, like Sandhagen, Font has proved he’s capable of handling adversity. After consecutive losses to Jose Aldo and Marlon Vera, the ex-CES Featherweight Champion dazzled the world with a first-round TKO victory over Adrian Yanez at UFC 287.

When it comes to striking members, the two men are evenly matched ahead of UFC Nashville. Sandhagen and Font land 5.98 and 6.46 significant strikes per minute, respectively, while their striking percentages only differ by two percent.

They also boast similar grappling numbers, however, Font averages slightly more takedowns per 15 minutes (1.01) with better accuracy (36%) than Sandhagen (0.89 and 21%).

UFC Nashville: Sandhagen vs Font Betting Trends and Markets

The UFC Nashville main event’s odds are so lopsided that only a Font upset is the only option that brings value. Don’t fret, though. BetOnline has a variety of Sandhagen vs. Font markets that bring better betting opportunities to the table.

When it comes to the length of the fight, BetOnline favors this bout to last over 4.5 rounds (-125). Interestingly enough, the over is 3-1 on this prop in each fighter’s last four respective fights.

At the same time, the sportsbook is listing that this fight won’t go the distance at -125 odds.

If we don’t reach the five-round limit this weekend, Sandhagen is favored to win by KO/TKO (+150). The “Sandman” has racked up seven knockout victories throughout his career with three of those wins coming in his last six fights.

As for Font, his likeliest method of victory is winning by points at +500 odds. It’s not too surprising to see that considering how six of his last eight fights have gone the distance and he’s emerged victorious in three of them.

If you’re trying to pinpoint exactly when this fight will end, BetOnline has you covered for that, too. Sandhagen is favored to win by first-round KO/TKO at +600 odds.

For reference, only three of his seven all-time knockout wins occurred in the opening frame.

UFC Nashville: Sandhagen vs Font Fight Prediction

I’m taking Sandhagen to win at UFC Nashville. Unlike Font, the heavy favorite has actually had time to prepare for this fight. Sandhagen is also backed by a solid momentum wave and has already defeated opponents on Font’s level, if not even better.

Having said that, I don’t see this fight ending in a finish. Font is a tough individual who’s been finished just once in his career. Sandhagen will likely need to go the distance to get the job done, which won’t be an issue seeing as how he has a better winning percentage (66.7%) than Font (58.3%) in that regard.

Look for Sandhagen to score the huge win via points (+195) this weekend.

UFC Nashville Event Details

When is UFC Nashville?

UFC Nashville will take place on Saturday, August 5, 2023.

Where is UFC Nashville?

UFC Nashville will take place at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee.

What time does UFC Nashville start?

UFC Nashville Preliminary Card Start Time: 6 p.m. ET
Start Time of UFC Nashville’s Main Card: 9 p.m. ET

How can I watch UFC Nashville?

Both UFC Nashville main and preliminary cards can be viewed on ESPN and ESPN+.

How can I bet on UFC Nashville?

All of the top online sports betting sites will have UFC Nashville odds, but here are some of the sites we recommend most for MMA betting enthusiasts.

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