UFC Fight Night: Marvin Vettori vs Jared Cannonier Picks and Predictions

UFC Fight Night will see two top middleweights square off, looking to gain momentum in the division. Cannonier possesses knockout power, but our UFC betting picks expect "The Italian Dream" to withstand it all and come out on top.

Marvin Vettori vs. Jared Cannonier is the main event for UFC Fight Night betting on Saturday, June 17 from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

This should be a banger between a pair of Top 5 middleweights who have come up short in title fights in their respective careers. UFC odds opened with Vettori as the favorite from anywhere between -190 and -150. However, money has come in on Cannonier, shortening this line to almost a pick'em, with Vettori now at -115 and Cannonier at -105. 

Here are my best free UFC Fight Night Vettori vs. Cannonier picks and predictions for June 17.

Marvin Vettori vs Jared Cannonier fight odds

Marvin Vettori vs Jared Cannonier method of victory odds

Marvin Vettori vs Jared Cannonier picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.

If you’re signing up for a new sportsbook for UFC betting, here are two of the best bonuses* available:

A) Vettori, Petrsosyan, Sabatini & Torres all win BOOSTED to +900 at Caesars! Bet Now

B) Get a 20% profit boost on any UFC bet every week at Unibet! Bet Now

best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

Marvin Vettori vs Jared Cannonier betting preview

Marvin "The Italian Dream" Vettori is the No. 3 ranked middleweight contender and is coming off a unanimous decision victory against Roman Dolidze in March. That allowed him to bounce back from a decision loss to Robert Whittaker and improved his record to 7-2 in his last nine fights, with the other defeat coming in a title shot against Israel Adesanya. 

Vettori is a simple meat and potatoes guy when it comes to striking, but that combined with the rest of his tools makes him a tough guy to beat in the cage.  He has solid fundamental kickboxing, an iron chin, and an endless gas tank while doing an effective job of mixing in his grappling. 

Jared "Tha Killa Gorilla" Cannonier is one spot behind Vettori in the middleweight rankings. In his last time out he edged Sean Strickland by split decision in the final UFC event of 2022. 

Since moving down to middleweight in 2018, Cannonier has gone 6-2 with four wins by knockout, and his only defeats have come against Whittaker and Adesanya who have clearly separated themselves atop this division.

Cannonier began his UFC career as a 241-pound heavyweight but he soon dropped down to light heavyweight, where he went 2-3. His power has really shined in this lighter division, with four of his six wins coming by way of KO/TKO. 

The 39-year-old is an explosive striker with dynamite in his hands, and he likes to set up his powerful combinations by attacking the lead leg of his foes.

Marvin Vettori vs Jared Cannonier tale of the tape

Marvin Vettori vs Jared Cannonier UFC prediction and best bet

Fight prediction: Vettori

Cannonier is a very powerful striker but he doesn't push the pace, and Vettori's pressure could pose problems for his style — especially if he utilizes his grappling advantage. 

Sure Cannonier is extremely strong and has displayed excellent takedown defense at 185, but Vettori doesn't need to take him down. He just has to stall Cannonier against the fence or get him in a clinch position to sap his cardio and power — things he's more than capable of doing.

One thing we saw in Cannonier's fight against Strickland was that while he appeared to land the more powerful shots, Strickland wasn't phased. But Strickland managed to get big reactions out of Cannonier when he tagged him.

That could factor into this one as well since Vettori has an iron chin. And while he isn't particularly heavy handed, he throws with plenty of volume. If Vettori can eat Cannonier's best shots without blinking and then get big reactions while throwing with higher output, the judges will likely side with him. 

Prediction: Vettori moneyline (-115 at DraftKings)

Fight best bet: Vettori by decision

While Cannonier has knockout power, four of his last five fights went the distance — including three that went 25 minutes. He's a patient fighter that's more than willing to use leg kicks and wait for openings instead of pressuring his opponent from the opening bell. 

That's not necessarily a good thing in this matchup because if he doesn't get an early finish, Vettori should be able to break him down over 25 minutes. 

Vettori rarely gets finishes and 12 of his last 13 bouts have gone the distance, with four going 25 minutes. Expect his iron chin to weather the storm from Cannonier while his cardio and output lead to another win on the scorecards. 

Pick: Vettori by decision (+140 at bet365)