UFC Fight Night: Mudaerji vs Elliott Odds, Picks & Predictions

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09 December 2023

UFC Fight Night: Mudaerji vs Elliott Odds, Picks & Predictions

Tim Elliott enters this fight as a late opponent for The Tibetan Eagle, but oddsmakers have labeled him a short favorite. With more experience, our UFC picks are siding with the market and taking Elliott to pick up the victory.

Su Mudaerji vs. Tim Elliott is a flyweight bout scheduled for three rounds and is a featured undercard attraction on this weekend’s UFC Fight Night taking place this Saturday, December 9.

The veteran Elliott comes in on four days' notice and hopes he can avoid a two-fight skid and overcome his younger opponent.

UFC odds have Elliott as a -135 favorite while Mudaerji is a +114 underdog. Here are my free picks for Mudaerji vs. Elliott at UFC Fight Night from Las Vegas.

Mudaerji vs Elliott fight odds

Mudaerji vs Elliott method of victory odds

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Mudaerji vs Elliott picks

Fight prediction: Elliott ML

Though Tim Elliott is a late sub fighting an opponent nine years his junior, he’s a narrow favorite. The reasoning behind it has less to do with Tim and more to do with his talented, but limited foe. While Elliott may not be as much of a threat to the top tier of the flyweight division, he’s a solid gatekeeper with staying power and a strong ground game.

His refined skill set should shine against the rough, but careless Su Mudaerji. The Sichuan striker leaves it all on the table and can cause some havoc, but both his finishing abilities and defense are lacking. For all the good Mudaerji can do in his striking, it doesn’t mean much if he isn’t putting people away and getting beat.

Elliott has a hard time against grapplers but is crafty enough to befuddle crude strikers like Mudaerji. Elliott can still hang with strikers, and "The Tibetan Eagle's" poor takedown defense will provide the aging vet a path to victory. Provided Elliott makes weight, he should pull this one off.

Prediction: Elliott moneyline (-135 at DraftKings)

Fight best bet: Elliott ML

The Tibetan Eagle has lost all five of his fights by submission. While he has a chance to overcome Elliott in a conventional striking battle, Elliott’s experience and ground game will shine. Because Mudaerji only fights in one direction at one speed, Elliott will figure him out rather quickly.

His aggression is commendable, but not being able to stop the chinny Matt Schnell and getting choked out is a bad look for Mudaerji. Elliott has demonstrated the better skills of the two and could exploit his younger opponent’s lacking ground defense.

Elliott will survive the striking exchanges, score the takedowns, and outlast a simple opponent to keep his career rolling. With no other line available, I’ll go with Elliott straight up.

Pick: Elliott moneyline (-135 at DraftKings)

Mudaerji vs Elliott betting preview

Elliott may not have what it takes to beat the best of the flyweight division, but he has proven to be a stubborn gatekeeper. The veteran has a pressure-heavy style and a strong wrestling background — not to mention he’s been in with legitimately great fighters in the division. Though he’s starting to show his age and coming off an October loss to Muhammad Mokaev, he’s still a tough test.

Mudaerji bangs around like loose change in a dryer, but the battler needs consistency. Though successful against low-tier opposition, Mudaerji lacks the stopping power and submission defense necessary to sustain his run in the UFC.

The Eagles has five submission defeats, and Elliott has eight submission wins. Mudaerji's path to victory will be overwhelming Elliott in a striking battle, though Elliott has only been stopped by strikes once in his career. Tim hasn’t scored a win inside the distance since 2017, and seven of his last nine fights have gone to the scorecards.