UFC Fight Night: Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili Picks and Predictions

UFC Fight Night is back in Vegas this weekend, with Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili as the headliner. It's been a tough stretch for Yan but our betting picks like him to rebound — find out how below.

Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili is scheduled for three rounds in the bantamweight division and is the main event of this weekend’s UFC Fight Night card from The Theater in Las Vegas.

Yan hopes to get back on track after some dusty decisions, but his path to becoming the once and future king at bantamweight sees a stern challenge ahead in Dvalishvili.

UFC odds have former champion Yan as the favorite at -255. Dvalishvili gets his chance to take down a big name, and he’ll do it as a +215 underdog.

Here are our picks and predictions for Yan vs. Dvalishvili at UFC Fight Night in Las Vegas.

Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili fight odds

Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili method of victory odds

Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili betting preview

It was inevitable that Yan and Davlishvili were going to fight. Even if Yan was still a champion, and not a loser of three of his last four, Dvalishvili’s upward momentum would bring them together. 

Thankfully, Yan’s desire to compete for a title again and his willingness to keep taking tough fights should deliver a fight with major consequences at bantamweight.

After a shocking DQ loss to Aljamain Sterling ended his dominant title run, Yan has hit some rough waters. He beat up Cory Sandhagen in a savage fight, dropped a split decision to Sterling in their rematch, then lost another questionable decision to Sean O’Malley in his last bout. Instead of a rebound fight, he’s going into another five-round battle against a surging contender. 

Losing streak aside, Yan is still a Top-3 bantamweight. He’s one of the most well-rounded fighters in the UFC, landing 5.31 significant strikes per minute at 53% accuracy and 1.86 takedowns per 15 minutes at 56% accuracy. “No Mercy” is a taxing striker who has scored seven knockouts in 16 wins and has an average fight time of 16 minutes and 6 seconds.

Aside from Sterling, Dvalishvili is the best grappler in the division. He’s won eight fights in a row since a stoppage loss to Ricky Simon in 2018 and is coming off the biggest win of his career against the aging Jose Aldo in a tepid fight last March.

Dvalishvili “The Machine” is not facing a faded trial horse here. He scores 6.54 takedowns per 15 minutes at 40% accuracy and lands 4.21 significant strikes per minute at 40%. A close-quarters specialist who attacks your gas tank while running down the clock, Dvalishvili has 11 decisions in 15 total wins with an average fight time of 14 minutes and 27 seconds.

If Yan is in decline, then the wrestle-heavy offense from Dvalishvili will make that point true. Then again, Dvlishvili has beaten a lot of fighters who don’t have an answer for his grappling. 

Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili tale of the tape

Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili UFC prediction and best bet

Fight prediction: Yan 

Yan’s recent setbacks have been questionable calls in otherwise close decisions. Many believe he should still be a champion at bantamweight. Dvalishvili is one of the best fighters in the division, but his offense is 100% wrestling-based, and his striking and submission game is not where it needs to be in a fight like this.

As good as Dvalishvili is, there’s no way he can clinch or control Yan on the ground in a five-rounder and expect to win a decision. Yan stops 90% of takedowns attempted against him, and he is a pinpoint striker who assaults the body with some crippling kicks. 

This is a five-round fight, so it will be harder for Dvalishvili to steal rounds by eating time, and Yan will score points for doing the better quality work.

We’re going with Yan to get back on track with a win.  

Prediction: Yan moneyline (-270 at DraftKings)

Fight best bet: Yan by decision

While Yan should win, he’s not a light’s out striker and there should be plenty of negative fighting here. Expect a lot of staring, posturing, and hand-fighting as Dvalishvili tries to find some way to score a takedown. 

This fight won’t be an early night for anyone, and we see this fight going the distance.

With Yan doing the better work and Dvalishvili unable to get any headway offensively, this should be a wipeout for Yan on the cards. Our best bet is Yan by decision.

Pick: Yan by decision (+110 at DraftKings)