UFC Fight Night: Ricardo Ramos vs Austin Lingo Picks and Predictions

Though some flagged this matchup as a potential upset, our UFC Fight Night betting picks don't see it — we break down the favored Ramos' key advantages and more below.

Ricardo Ramos vs. Austin Lingo is scheduled for three rounds in the featherweight division and is a featured attraction on the UFC Fight Night undercard from the Theater in Las Vegas.

Ramos shoots for his second win in a row to stand out in a changing featherweight division, and Lingo is hoping his first fight in nearly two years results in a career-best win.

UFC odds have Ramos as the favorite at -365, with Lingo coming back as a +300 underdog.

Here are my picks and predictions for Ramos vs. Lingo at UFC Fight Night in Las Vegas.

Ricardo Ramos vs Austin Lingo fight odds

Ricardo Ramos vs Austin Lingo method of victory odds

Ricardo Ramos vs Austin Lingo picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Ricardo Ramos vs Austin Lingo betting preview

Ramos is the biggest favorite on the main card and his flashy style hopes to shine bright in the spotlight. He's hoping to demonstrate some consistency and evolution, and he’ll have an opponent who's presumably being set up for a loss. Lingo is a by-the-numbers striker, but some feel that he can pull off an unlikely upset here.

With an arsenal of spinning attacks, being light on his feet, and active on the ground, Ramos brings a lot of weapons to the octagon. For all the things he can do, he can afford to dial back the flash and get more substance. While he’s coming off an impressive stoppage win over Danny Chavez last October, he's 3-2 in his last five and didn’t look too impressive in the losses to Zubaira Tukhgov and Lerone Murphy. 

Since joining the UFC, Ramos has shown that he can put on strong performances. A ground war is going to be his best option against Lingo, where he averages 2.58 takedowns per 15 minutes at 58% accuracy and can use his speed to get in position to get his man on the floor. He also has good striking power and his unorthodox attacks can lead to big damage, such as the spinning elbow that slumped Chavez.

Lingo is a rough-and-ready battler who can take a shot and give it back twice as bad if you’re not careful. He’s 2-1 since joining the UFC, though he hasn’t been in the octagon since August 2021. Even so, he's a strong striker that did well during his 7-0 run with Legacy Fighting Alliance. Previously, Lingo overcame a bad opening round to beat Luis Saldana on the cards.

Four of Lingo’s nine wins have been stoppages and he likes to mix it up. He lands 4.0 significant strikes per minute at 42% accuracy and if he keeps the fight standing with his 80% takedown defense accuracy, then he can exploit Ramos’ leaky defense as long as he can stay in the pocket. Not only is Lingo the more accurate striker (42% vs 38%), he has superior takedown accuracy (66% vs 58%) as well.

Lingo is a slow starter, but he’s hard to fight off when he gets going. Ramos can’t afford to get too excited against an opponent who’s going to be hard to crack and in his face all night. This could be a better fight than the odds indicate, even though we’re confident about how this one will end up.

Ricardo Ramos vs Austin Lingo tale of the tape

Ricardo Ramos vs Austin Lingo UFC prediction and best bet

Fight prediction: Ramos ML

Ramos is the better fighter in every aspect. The ground game, the striking selection, and the experience are all there for the Brazilian, and it’s not surprising that the line keeps climbing ahead of the first bell.

Lingo is Texas tough, but the inactivity is a red flag and his performances in the UFC have been less authoritative than those on the regional circuit.

Lingo has a path to victory if he can tire out Ramos, who can sometimes exert a lot of energy with his unique strikes, but Ramos could opt to take him to the ground.

In his UFC debut, Lingo suffered six takedowns in his loss to Youssef Zalal before scaling back his competition in his next two fights. This was seen as a potential upset, though we can’t see it.

Prediction: Ramos moneyline (-365 at DraftKings)

Fight best bet: Ramos to win + Over 1.5 rounds

Neither fighter tends to finish early. Ramos and Lingo’s combined average fight times are 12 minutes and 26 seconds, so we can rule out an early finish.

Ramos will have to endure some grit from Lingo before outclassing him, so we see this fight potentially going deep or even to the scorecards. 

We’ll factor in the possibility of Ramos getting Lingo down and submitting him, so the best bet for the money is that Ramos wins the fight and it goes Over 1.5 rounds at -125.

Pick: Ramos to win + Over 1.5 rounds (-125 at DraftKings)