UFC Fight Night: Wood vs Fili Picks and Predictions

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20 July 2023

UFC Fight Night: Wood vs Fili Picks and Predictions

Andre Fili may have a few inches of height and reach on his opponent this weekend but we think the favored Nathaniel Wood is the fighter to beat. Find out why in our UFC Fight Night betting picks below.

Nathaniel Wood and Andre Fili meet at the featherweight crossroads in a featured undercard clash at UFC Fight Night this Saturday, July 22, from the O2 Arena in London.

UFC odds favor Wood to make the London crowd happy as a -205 favorite. Veteran Fili is trying to make it two in a row and is a +175 underdog.

Wood will have to overcome Fili’s natural advantages in height and reach in order to test the veteran’s leaky defense.

I expect Wood vs. Fili to be a proper banger, so let’s see how it plays out this weekend in London.

Wood vs Fili fight odds

Wood vs Fili method of victory odds

Wood vs Fili picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Wood vs Fili betting preview

Wood continues to build on his credentials at featherweight against a tried and true veteran. Since dropping a decision to Casey Kenney, he’s won his last two in a row and is the hometown favorite against Fili. Though Wood is trying to maintain his upward momentum, he needs to be on his toes against the veteran.

Wood is giving up five inches in height and reach to Fili, so he’ll need to stay in the pocket. He sets a blistering pace, landing 6.34 significant strikes per minute, and has excellent cardio. “The Prospect” also works in takedowns in his offense, landing 1.81 takedowns per 15 minutes to emphasize his development as a well-rounded threat.

Considering the natural disadvantages Wood faces, he’ll opt to keep this a close-quarters fight. Fili’s striking defense isn’t anything notable, and Wood is likely to build a big striking lead should he bypass his reach. He’ll need to be mindful of Fili trying to take him down and has to hope his 73% takedown defense is up to the task.

Fili prevailed in a battle of the featherweight journeymen against Bill Algeo in his last fight. Though Fili looked terrible, he managed to dominate the fight on the ground and eke out a split decision. The Washington native is never in a bad fight, and he’s seen it all in his 13-year career.

Like Wood, Fili is an all-rounder, though he does better with his ground game. He runs a negative striking deficit, absorbing 4.03 significant strikes per minute while landing 3.83 at 37% accuracy, but makes up for it by averaging 2.83 takedowns per fight.

The key for Fili to spring the upset is using his height and reach to keep Wood on the outs. His recent track record suggests that he won’t be able to do that for long, so he’ll need to change levels and try to lure his opponent into a takedown. It isn’t impossible for Fili to pull this off, but he’s going to have a hard time fighting backward.