UFC Fight Night: Ige vs Fili Odds, Picks & Predictions

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08 February 2024

UFC Fight Night: Ige vs Fili Odds, Picks & Predictions

With a couple of key advantages and his opponent coming in on short notice, anything other than a Danny Ige victory would come as a shock to our UFC Fight Night betting picks — read more below.

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Dan Ige vs. Andre Fili is our co-main event of this weekend’s edition of UFC Fight Night as these premier featherweights take to the cage this Saturday, February 10, at The Apex in Las Vegas.

These perennial Top-15 contenders are short on time to secure a major fight, but Ige might have more to offer this night than late-sub Fili.

UFC odds have Ige as a -170 favorite, and Fili is a +135 underdog. Here are my free betting picks for Ige vs. Fili at UFC Fight Night.

Ige vs Fili fight odds

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Ige vs Fili picks

Fight prediction: Danny Ige ML

Originally, Ige was penciled in to play the fall guy to Lerone Murphy, and he’s in a better situation with fellow gatekeeper Fili stepping in on short notice. Ige is a hard worker who always brings his A-game, though it's never been enough to break past his talent ceiling.

He can beat the unworthy and falls short of the true standouts of the division. He's coming off a loss to Bryce Mitchell where he was taken down five times and lost a decision, making him 2-3 in his last five fights.

He should still be good enough to beat Fili. While Fili looked solid in taking out Lucas Almeida last December, Ige remains the more well-rounded fighter despite his recent shortcomings.

Ige will always be hard to beat in a conventional striking battle, and Fili hasn’t had much luck with takedowns as he’s only scored two over his last five fights. Ige’s striking defense is better than Fili’s as well, and it won’t take too long for him to put Fili in a striking deficit.

This shouldn’t look much different from Fili’s loss to Nathanial Wood, where he was unable to do much against the light-hitting Wood and seemed to be without an answer to his striking style. Ige’s technical abilities and superior accuracy will ultimately be too much for Fili to handle. Takedowns tend to ruin Ige’s flow, but Fili isn’t a grappler in the mold of those who’ve troubled him in the past.

For the most part, Ige is the better-skilled fighter and doesn’t seem like he’s losing a step. When he’s fighting opponents at Fili’s level, he tends to get the job done. I expect no less, especially with Fili coming in on short notice.

I’ll back Ige to bounce back from his lopsided loss to Mitchell and get back in the win column here.

Prediction: Danny Ige moneyline (-160 at Bet99)

Fight best bet: Danny Ige to win by decision

Since joining the UFC in 2017, Ige has yet to suffer a knockout defeat. Fili is similarly durable, though he’s been victimized by knockout twice before. Most of their fights over the last few years have gone the distance, and there’s no reason not to expect this bout to do the same.

Because Fili isn’t going to suddenly turn into a pure grappler less than two months since his last fight, expect a lot of striking exchanges with Ige using his jab and footwork to avoid Fili’s bombs. Ige plays the long game with an average fight time of 13:08 and can rely on his veteran defense and solid chin to keep him upright in moments when the fight gets chippy.

I expect Fili to be in serviceable condition despite the sudden turnaround from his previous fight. He went right through Alameida without absorbing any damage or getting cut, though there is the risk he might not be 100% after an expedited training camp so soon after his last fight.

Fili should do what he can to try and get Ige on the ground, but his ground game has been dormant for some time, and he won’t win a straight-up striking battle with Ige.

Add the potential that Fili coming in as a late sub as well as how durable these two are, I’m going with “50K” to go over Fili by decision.

Pick: Danny Ige to win by decision (+160 at Bet99)

Ige vs Fili betting preview

Ige remains a staple contender at featherweight, though he's slipping towards gatekeeper status.

The 32-year-old Ige has struggled to break from the middle of the pack. This is despite possessing excellent striking instincts and is durable enough to be a tough test for anyone. He lands 3.76 significant strikes per minute and also has a positive striking differential at 0.23.

Fili has settled into his role as a tough, but passable test for the rising featherweights. He can land some killer shots and is very aggressive, though at the cost of taking his share of punishment along the way, posting a -0.25 striking differential.

Though Fili used to rely on a takedown-heavy offense early in his career, he’s transitioned away from that and has settled more into his striking.

A common thread in Fili’s losses has been falling behind early in the striking battle, and not having the kind of late power to reverse his fortunes. Expect “Touchy” to live up to his moniker, goading Ige into exchanges and hoping to land a big enough shot early on to place the momentum of the bout in his favor.